While I have stated this before, I will declare it again right now. I would prefer that we have two parties in this country that are both vibrant and realistic. Of course, I would desire that the Democrat Party be a center-left lot and the Republican Party be a center-right group. This would allow for compromise in the absolute center of the ideological spectrum. Certainly, the Republican Party has had some issues with their more liberal members, like Susan Collins of Maine, and the “Tea” Party which, one could argue, is today’s Freedom Caucus. But the Republican Party today is more united than it has been in a long time. It’s probably a center-right party, especially when you consider that they have a President who was once a Democrat (of course, Reagan was a Democrat once also). But the Democrats are more divided ideologically that I can remember, and this will create tremendous problems for them come November.
While the entire Democrat Party has leaned pretty far left over the last three years, there are two factions fighting for the heart of the party. One faction is the unapologetic socialist wing of the party, represented by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (I know she says she’s a capitalist, but a rose by any other name…) and the moderates, Biden and Bloomberg. I know that Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Steyer and Gabbard (I actually like her) are still technically in the race, but their chances of pulling off a victory are practically nonexistent.
In the “socialist” camp you have Warren and Sanders, but again, let’s be realistic. Sanders is well ahead of Warren nationally and would probably be the representative in this camp at the convention. If Sanders actually becomes the Democrat nominee, however, the party has some tremendous issues. First, Bernie’s proposals are absolutely implausible. He wants free medical care, free college, free child-care, forgiveness of all college debt and on top of this he has his “green new deal”. Bernie says he doesn’t have a price tag for all of his programs, which is a good move on his part. My rough calculation of the total cost of his “freebies” and “government take-overs” is $100 trillion over 10 years. That’s Trillion, with a “T”. That’s an average $10 trillion a year MORE than the federal government is spending now.
When you consider that our government spent only (I nearly choked when I typed “only”) $4.45 trillion in fiscal 2019, this would mean that Bernie plans to triple the size of our government. And, remember what I’ve been telling you. THE GOVERNMENT HAS NO MONEY. Every penny it spends comes from “we the people”. He can SAY he is going to give away all this free stuff, but in reality he can't. This is why Bernie has authored only three bills that have been passed into law during his entire 39 years in Congress, and two of those bills were to name Post Offices in Vermont. He has a horrible track record because his proposals are preposterous. He can’t deliver what he promises, and people will eventually figure that out.
The final reality that will burst Bernie’s Presidential dreams is that the people of the United States oppose socialism and embrace capitalism, which has delivered the most powerful, most free and most prosperous nation on earth. According to NPR (hardly a conservative outfit) only 28% of Americans have a favorable impression of socialism. Only 50% of Democrats feel that way, only 7% of Republicans and 23% of Independents. Given his ridiculous proposals, his pitiful record in Congress and the general state of the mind of Americans, I don’t believe that Bernie can win in November. But he is the current leader in the Democrat primary, and that’s a problem for Democrats.
But let’s say that Biden or Bloomberg win the primary battle and get the nomination in Milwaukee. They are the more moderate choices for Democrats and are two choices I would prefer over Sanders. I have some issues with their policies, and I see very few Trump voters jumping ship for either of these men. Their problem in the general election, however, isn’t convincing Trump voters to change their votes. It is to get Bernie’s people to vote at all.
While Bernie voters aren’t bountiful enough to win the general election, they are fanatical. They feel like they were cheated in 2016, and if its happens again in 2020 they are going to madder than a wet hen. If Bernie goes into the convention with the most delegates (likely) but not enough to win on the first ballot (also likely) that would lead to an open convention. There, I predict Bernie will be defeated by a combination of super-delegate votes and the normal delegate swapping that happens in an open convention. I don’t believe Biden or Bloomberg can win in November without a strong turnout from the Bernie voters, and I just don’t see that happening.
I just can’t see a positive outcome for the Democrats. Their only hope is to blame the Coronavirus on Trump, hope that it devastates America (a truly disgusting wish) and hope that people actually believe that all of this was Trump's fault. If you have another possible outcome, let me know!!
"But the Republican Party today is more united than it has been in a long time. "
ReplyDeleteTrue, but around a man, not a set of principles and ideals. As such, it can mean anything with regard to any issue at any time. For example, Republicans lost their minds when Obama traded 5 Taliban for Bergdahl. Yesterday we committed to releasing 5000 as part of our withdrawal. And, the number of registered Republicans has now fallen below the number of registered Democrats.
"While the entire Democrat Party has leaned pretty far left"
This is really false. While both sides engage in "nutmining", ie grabbing the craziest things the other side says and blowing it up, from a policy standpoint Bush and Obama were not appreciably different. Trump stands alone, but not tied to any particular ideal or policy position - one must worship him, not what he believes in.
"My rough calculation of the total cost of his “freebies” and “government take-overs” is $100 trillion over 10 years. That’s Trillion, with a “T”."
That assumes he could get his "plan" through Congress. Trump four years ago had a plan to get rid of the deficit in 10 years and implement universal healthcare. Talk is cheap.
"Socialism" and "big government liberal" are just labels that the Repubs will throw at any Dems. Trumpists don't actually hate those things, as evidenced by the Trump bailouts and the Trump deficits, they're just campaign nonsense. Trump is the embodiment of crony capitalism, not capitalism, and will in the long run do more to the standing of capitalism than any Democrat could hope to do.
All that matters now is turnout in a few key states. Obviously, if the Dems nominate anyone but Bernie they have a much better chance. Trump has historical low approval rates nationwide, but nationwide isn't that important. The Republican party losing adherents is the scary part for them. The losses downballot are reversing a decades long trend in statehouses across the country. Republicans in Congress are retiring fast.
Blaming the coronavirus on Trump? No one serious is doing that (again, nutmining). There are questions about the response, that's for sure, since Trump has made some policy choices that have weakened the NIH. But Dems haven't said anywhere near as much to blame that on Trump as Trump tried to gin up Ebola fears and blame Obama (Google his tweets on it if you don't believe me). But of course, true Trumpists have short memories, and what the President said yesterday means nothing to what they embrace today.
Again though, Democrats are a disorganized bunch at best, and in normal times the Republicans would be able to draw a sharp contrast with regard to policy. On everything from bailouts to deficit spending to corruption to foreign policy though, the distinctions are no longer there. So it's a popularity contest. Are people more tired of Trump than Trump and his crew can tear down the Dem nominee? That is the question at the end of the day. And no one has any more of a clue than they did in 2016.
If you're interested in returning to more classical Republican positions, and/or a believer in limited government and conservative values as they used to be espoused, this group is worth your time:
ReplyDeletehttps://standuprepublic.com/about-us/
Wow, Matt, you should go to work for CNN or some other left wing media outlet. Let me point out your misinformation (I'm being kind) one point at a time.
ReplyDeleteRepublicans are not united around a man, but around the policies he ran on and has executed - lower taxes, reduced regulation, rule of law, constitutionalists on the Supreme Court, free markets (tough on China) and much more. Democrat constant harassment just forces us to defend Trump nearly every day. Trump isn't perfect, but neither is Bernie (crazy), Joe (corrupt), Liz (dishonest). Face facts, my friend.
The Democrat Party has move left. When asked if their health care plans would cover illegal aliens, every candidate raised their hands. All have embraced the green new deals. Have you actually read AOC or Bernie"s green new deals?
Bernie just won't get his plan through Congress. That's an unbelievable statement. So you will vote for a person for President hoping that none of his policies will be enacted. You need to rethink that position.
If you think Trump is a socialist, you should vote for him.
No one is blaming Trump for the Coronavirus? Really? The New York Times ran an opinion headline that said "Let's call it the Trumpvirus". Virtually every lamestream media outlet condemned Trumps travel bans when he put them in place back in January and now they are suggesting he hasn't acted fast enough. They are trying to suggest that no matter what happens it is Trump's fault because he doesn't know what he is doing, however as I actually analyze what his administration is doing, he is on target and all are doing the right things and as quickly as possible. Dems are hoping for a crisis. Their motto is, "don't let a good crisis go to waste". Hoping for disaster is a pathetic position.
Also, the NIH and the CDC have not been weakened under the Trump administration, in fact funding has been increased. It was Congress that did it, so they should know better than to suggest anything else. That is a lie that has even been pointed out by the AP, hardly a right wing media.
The bottom line is, you didn't even answer my question. Do you have a more likely scenario? Am I off target, or is it true that Bernie is too extreme to win and if a moderate gets the nomination it will be unlikely that Joe or Mike will be able to get the fanatical Bernie voters to support them?
"Republicans are not united around a man, but around the policies he ran on and has executed - lower taxes, reduced regulation, rule of law, constitutionalists on the Supreme Court, free markets (tough on China) and much more. "
ReplyDeleteThe evidence says otherwise. People who believe in free markets don't believe in tariffs issued with no discernible purpose and then lying about the effects, or even worse giving exemptions out to favored companies. Nor do they believe in bailouts to offset the negative effects. As I recall, the Republican Party used to believe in dignity in office, deficit reduction, limited government, and transparent government. That you would even say "rule of law" in relation to Trump is somewhat crazy. People who believe in the "rule of law" don't attack judges because of their parents' country of origin. Don't pay $25 million fines for fake universities, or run nonprofits that basically exist for self dealing.
"Trump isn't perfect, but neither is Bernie (crazy), Joe (corrupt), Liz (dishonest). Face facts, my friend."
No one is perfect. But no one combines the corruption with the lack of dignity or incompetence that Trump does. You don't have to believe me - believe his Twitter feed - literally read his own words. If you think that calling women ugly publicly, or embracing Putin and rejecting our intelligence agencies instead, making fun of the disabled, and engaging in crony capitalism is for you, then Trump is your guy. I note you didn't mention Biden though.
" When asked if their health care plans would cover illegal aliens, every candidate raised their hands. All have embraced the green new deals. Have you actually read AOC or Bernie"s green new deals?"
Have you ever read Trump's promises during the campaign? If you're going to crucify one side for that, you have to apply it to both. I look to what they actually do, not what they promise. If you think exploding deficits, socialism in the form of bailouts, crony capitalism, and a general lack of manners and dignity is for you, then again - Trump is your guy. He's not just promising those things, he's doing them.
"So you will vote for a person for President hoping that none of his policies will be enacted. You need to rethink that position.
If you think Trump is a socialist, you should vote for him."
Why would I vote for a socialist? I actually believe in classic Republican values like the ones I mention. The closest we've come to that is with divided government with Dems in the White House and Repubs in Congress.
"The New York Times ran an opinion headline that said "Let's call it the Trumpvirus". "
You made my point. You found one person in the millions publishing things that said that. Next you'll tell me because AOC says something that means all Dems embrace it. Again, look to policy. Though Trump's press conference yesterday indicated a stunning lack of basic knowledge about the issue. I urge you to watch it. You pay close attention to any voice claiming to be the other side, but you should really pay close attention to the President. Listen to what he says.
"Also, the NIH and the CDC have not been weakened under the Trump administration, in fact funding has been increased. "
Take it up with Business Insider - hardly left wing media: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-defends-cuts-cdc-budget-federal-government-hire-doctors-coronavirus-2020-2-1028946602
"Do you have a more likely scenario? "
I don't believe anyone is too extreme to win in the situation with a President with unfavorables this high. I have no prediction other than it will be close if Trump wins and will depend on four states. If he loses, I think it will be by a large margin.
If Trump were smart, he'd shut his mouth and let your scenario happen. He is physically incapable of staying quiet though.
"Republicans are not united around a man"
ReplyDeleteI was at lunch and I couldn't quit thinking about your statement. Not that any person is perfect. I'm a sinner, I presume you are, and everyone is. But I like to think I, and others, repent and have a desire to act differently. That's just not the case with Trump, and he's said so.
But to the statement, here's a relatively short list of things Republicans cared MIGHTILY about during Clinton and Obama presidencies which now they say virtually nothing about.
Deficits - Remember the Tea Party? Freedom Caucus?
Lying and dignity of office - Listen to the Clinton impeachment speeches. Or think about all the now ticky-tack things they complained about Obama's action like a tan suit, or bowing.
Bailouts - Again, the Tea Party was in response to the late Bush early Obama bailouts which are dwarfed by the tariff bailouts.
Respect for Military Service - Republicans, even when they disagreed with the person's politics, believed that service deserved respect. Trump doesn't unless that person offers unwavering loyalty.
President answers to Congress - Hillary testified under oath for 11 hours, Holder testified as well. Republicans insisted on it, and were right to do so.
Respect for the Rule of Law - George W. Bush was about to pardon a guy, found out his dad had donated tens of thousands to the RNC, and pulled back the pardon because of the appearance of impropriety.
Independent Justice Dept. - Republicans lost their mind when Bill Clinton got on that plane with Lynch. Now Barr smashes through those norms with impunity.
Lying to the American people - Clinton "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" was mocked incessantly. Trump lies that he had an affair with a porn star, then lies that he paid her off. There are copies of the checks! Republicans say nothing.
Commitment to faith - Trump has said he doesn't need forgiveness, and he acts as such. Now some will say the Bible predicted such a man, but if you buy into that, how come you didn't buy into it with Clinton? Why were so many Republicans who were convinced Obama was evil not thinking the same way about him?
That's nothing to say of Trump U, his multiple bankruptcies, his thousands of lawsuits (Repubs used to hate excessive litigation), his disrespect for women. Honest question - is there anything about him or his life you would want your children to emulate? Anything at all?
You can say "well Dems do it too." OK. But if the best a party can offer as a reason to support it is they're just like the other guy, then I have no interest. I can't let a desire for my "team" winning to justify giving up everything I believe in.
It's like saying I want Arkansas to win a national championship, and there's no amount of cheating I won't condone to get it. If I trade all your principles for the win, is the win worth it?
Matt,
DeleteI wrote a long answer to this and lost it somehow. I'm not going to redo it. I'll just say that Abraham Lincoln said that, "If you look for the bad in a person, expecting to find it, you surely will." That is where you are.
Lying and lack of integrity is the favorite pastime of Washington and you just can't admit it.
You suffer badly from TDS. Take two "open minded" pills and call me in the morning.
Ok, this will be shorter, but here are some answers.
DeleteDeficits - Trumps budgets have always balanced in 10 years. Congress just ignores them.
Lying and dignity - They all lie and there is no dignity. They are just pathetic in different ways.
Bailouts - Obama's was nearly $800 billion. What bailout are you talking about?
Trump is the biggest support of the military and law enforcement of all the candidates. That is just a fact.
Bill Clinton and Lynch were trying to meet in secret and I suspect they talked about just the grandkids. Trump does it on Twitter. The whole country can see it. I will guarantee that worse was done in secret by Obama, Bush, Clinton, et al.
Lying to the American people. All I can say is Schiff, Brennan, Clapper, Pelosi, Nadler...and oh yah, Clinton. Give me a break.
Here's how to avoid bankruptcies - Never do anything and live off the government like Bernie and half of the s---heads in Washington.
Tariffs - Trump has used them as a weapon against China. Read my article about it. If you have a better plan to get China to stop lying, cheating and stealing to bury us by 2050, let me know. and I don't want to hear that you would just negotiate bette with them. Tell me your plan.
I don't like the brutal counter punching that Trump does, but many people love that about him. But if you think any of these people have any principles, you are again deceiving yourself. Bernie is lying and crazy. He knows he can't even do what he is promising and he is angry and crazy. Joe has told made as many misstatements and Trump, no one is keeping Track. Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff, Nadler, etc, etc have no integrity. i'm just looking for a standard scale of justice.
You still haven't answered my question. Do you have a different/better scenario?
Different than yours? Sure. I think any of the Dems can beat Trump due to his historic unfavorables and penchant for not shutting up when he's ahead. It just comes down to 4-5 states and it's impossible to say without knowing the nominee.
DeleteIf you're asking my ideal scenario, it would be Republicans with a limited government bent in the Presidency and Senate, Dems in the House. But next year I'd ideally take anyone else in the Presidency, and the Repubs in charge of one branch of Congress.
As for the rest of the above, Now they're even excusing bankruptcies and saying doing the wrong thing is ok since the wrong thing is done in public. And "counter punching"? Is that what we call attacking dead people these days? Counter-punching? I have to say I should stop being amazed at how the remaining committed Republicans have to view the world and ignore so many things and engage in such constant whataboutism to remain committed Republicans. I remember when the party espoused doing the right thing simply because it was the right thing for America, not basing their standards of the lowest common denominator of those they despised.
Maybe I just have too good of a memory of what Republicans used to stand for.
PS - There are precious few, if any, "Republicans with a limited government bent" left. Turns out they were all just pretending to care about those things during the Obama years.
DeleteAs if to prove the point, the Trump campaign just filed another frivolous lawsuit:
ReplyDeletehttp://assets.donaldjtrump.com/2017/web/hero_images/Complaint_Wash_Post_Final.pdf
It will likely be dismissed for lack of standing because the campaign isn't who needs to bring the suit, Trump is. Of course, Trump never will because when you are in a lawsuit, you're subject to having to answer questions under oath in writing or live. The few times Donald has gone under oath have not been pretty for him.
This is performative litigation, put out to stir up fools, which will disappear without a peep or will be dismissed for lack of standing and Trump will try to undermine the judiciary. He knows his followers don't understand standing so will buy his nonsense that "liberal judges" are out to get him.
The Republican Party I recall hated this kind of frivolousness in court. But maybe I was the fool - maybe they were only interested in litigation reform that made it harder for poor people to get justice.
"Hoping for disaster is a pathetic position."
ReplyDeleteIndeed, what kind of man hopes to benefit himself from a potential disaster?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/527153009860808705
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/518424184008237056
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/525431218910027776
Who would propose CDC cuts as recently as a couple weeks ago?
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925130
Tell me again how the Republican Party isn't in thrall to one man these days.
Kevin,
ReplyDeleteI'll update my prediction post Super Tuesday as I think Biden will be the nominee. Assuming (and this is always a big assumption) both Biden and Trump each continue with their usual level of misstatements, gaffes, tweets, Biden beats Trump fairly easily in 2020, Repubs barely hold the Senate, Dems make gains in the House. That's not based on the strength of Biden but on the desire of the suburbs to be rid of Trump. I'd say it'll be on the level that Obama beat Romney as far as electoral college.
Caveat that should go without saying, but a health scare for these two 70+ year olds or unforeseen world events could change that dramatically. A crisis on a global scale, such as coronavirus, won't make Trump look better though. Hard to think of a crisis that would.
One more prediction: Trump regrets not waiting to send his muddled henchman Rudy after Biden in his Ukraine scheme. As more comes out about the scheme, like the recent emails showing Esper, Pompeo, and Bolton all wanted the funds released but Trump wouldn't, it only looks more and more like Trump trying to make something up to hurt a political opponent and using a team of bumbling incompetents to do it because no one competent would touch it. If he'd done it in, say, July 2020, there'd have been less time for all that to come out. Ideally Trump would regret doing such an un-American thing at all, but that's not him.
One last prediction: Trump will regret baiting Bloomberg incessantly. Instead of letting his campaign die a natural death, Trump's now personally insulted the 8th richest man in the world time and again. Bloomberg's resources dwarf even Trump and the RNC's war chest.
Do you want to update your predictions post Super Tuesday?
I'll also add to the predictions that Trump is going to kill Republicans downballot, including in state houses. His attack on Jeff Sessions this morning is an example of how he's hurting the party's chances to retain the Senate by further splitting the party in a state they need to take back.
ReplyDeleteI wasn't being flip when I said it's all about allegiance to him, and nothing else. He has been this way for decades.