A Coronavirus Reality Check - Part II

A Coronavirus Reality Check – Part II
The View from the Middle

A good friend of mine, who just happens to also be a brilliant doctor, called me yesterday with some comments about my recent posts concerning the Coronavirus. He agreed with the direction that my posts have taken, particularly concerning the counsel that I have been repeating from the government concerning basic hygiene and social distancing. He did, however, point out that if you simply do the math (that is divide the global deaths by the number of infected people worldwide) the death rate is slightly over 4%. The opposite side of that statistic is that 96% of people survive.

If you look at the US numbers as of this morning, 9,415 people have contracted the Coronavirus and we have experienced 150 deaths. That’s a 1.6% death rate in the America so far. This would suggest that more than 98% of people here will not succumb to this disease. Why the difference between the US and global numbers? We are earlier in the life of this virus, but we may have also done a better job in mitigating this virus. Many would suggest that we also have a better medical care system here than in China and even Italy, which is having a huge problem. I’ll get back to Italy because my friend had some warnings relating to their circumstances.

I don’t want to confuse my readers, but there is even a third death rate that you need to be aware of, and that is the projection by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who works at NIH (National Institute of Health) and is on the President’s Coronavirus task force. He estimates that the death rate for this virus is 1%, which is still a death rate ten times higher than our annual flu. This is the number that I have been using when I have said that 99% of people who contract this virus will survive.

Now, why is Dr. Fauci’s number lower than the actual math would suggest? Dr. Fauci believes that the denominator in our equations (the number of people infected) is too low. I, and I suspect Dr. Fauci, believe that the numbers from China are wrong. Either because their healthcare system isn’t as efficient as ours, or they are lying. Take your pick, their numbers are wrong. While it is much harder to ignore a dead body, it is much easier to overlook an infection, accidentally of intentionally. Even in the US, I expect our infected numbers to go up as the disease progresses and more testing is done.

Whether the recovery rate is 96% or 98% or 99%, neither my good friend nor I are suggesting that this is not a serious challenge for our country. The good doctor wanted me to point out that no matter what the overall death rate is, it is much higher in the elderly and those with underlying health issues such as diabetes, emphysema and heart disease. We don’t have that number, but it could be 10% or 20% or even higher. He wanted to warn these people to take extra precautions – wash hands often (particularly before eating), avoid unnecessary travel and practice social distancing. Actually, that’s not bad advice for all of us.

My good friend did applaud the new daily news briefs led by Vice President Pence and his Coronavirus task force. He particularly liked the 15 day “slow the spread” plan for all the reasons that I laid out in my article on that subject. He is confident that we will overcome this national health challenge, but would like to see our leadership learn from the real crisis occurring in Italy right now.

Italy got a slow start on their mitigation effort which allowed the spread of this disease to put tremendous pressure on their entire healthcare system. Italy shows us what can happen if we don’t take this threat seriously. Currently, their infection numbers are almost half of China’s, despite the fact that Italy has only 5% of the population of China. And they have experienced almost 3,000 deaths, almost the same number as China where this virus originated. My doctor/friend would encourage us all to take mitigation practices very seriously so we don’t become Italy, but crush this virus before it becomes rampant. Check the 15-day plan for specific details. He would also encourage the administration to build capacity on hospital space and supplies right now so that we don’t get behind the curve that Italy finds itself in back of today.

The good news is that I heard progress on all of these issues at the press briefing this morning. The capacity issue is being addressed, even with some pretty creative ideas. The now idle cruise line industry has offered the government the use of some of their ships as floating hospitals. This could be VERY effective in the three hot spots in the United States (California, New York and the state of Washington) all of which host many ports that could utilize this gift. There are also 10 counties in these states that account for 50% of the Coronavirus cases in the entire United States. They could use some creative solutions.

Masks, mostly to protect our valiant healthcare workers, are now being produced by the private part of Trump’s public/private partnership by the tens of millions per week. Producing and distributing respirators is another priority of this administration and it appears that they are on top of it. Drugs like Chloroquine, Remdesivir and Favipiravir are being fast-tracked in studies or in production to help treat those who have acquired the virus. These are not exactly cures for the Coronavirus, but they will reduce the symptoms, speed recovery and reduce the death rate.

My friend is optimistic that we will meet the challenge of the Coronavirus, but wants everyone to know that only if we take the appropriate steps today (check out the 15 day plan) can we avoid the issues that Italy is facing today.