And Then There Were Two

And Then There Were Two
The View from the Middle

Actually, there are three people left in the Democrat primary because Tulsi Gabbard, whom I actually like, is still running. But let’s be realistic, the Democrat Party is down to a choice between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders for their Presidential nominee.

Just four days ago, I wrote an article called “The Democrats’ Dilemma” in which I suggested that I did not see a path for the Democrat nominee to beat Trump in November, but much has happened since March 1st and a door cracked open for the Dems. No one projected Joe Biden’s resounding success on Super Tuesday, and no one anticipated the consolidation of candidates that started with Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out before Super Tuesday, and ended with Elizabeth Warren leaving the race today.

The biggest bombshell, however, had to be Michael Bloomberg’s departure from the race yesterday. Bloomberg had spent over $500 million (some estimates have him spending over $700 million) on his campaign over the last three months and had vowed to go all the way to the convention. He famously said that he, “was in it to win it”. Of course, there are limits to any promise, I guess. Mike’s best finish on Tuesday was 3rd place, which he captured in nine states, and he finished 4th in the other five states. But he did win American Samoa where his vote total was under 200 people. Ouch.

I guess Mike came to the conclusion that there’s more than one way to buy the Presidency. The day after Super Tuesday he ditched all his plans and immediately endorsed Joe Biden. My guess is that he and Klobuchar and Buttigieg got the memo and decided to vacate the moderate lane of the Democrat party for Joe Biden. While I thought that this would eventually happen, I never suspected that it would happen so fast.

Why does this rapid consolidation make such a difference? It makes it less likely that the Democrats will have an open convention, which would bring in the dreaded “super” delegates and the delegate bartering which comes in the second round of the convention. It also makes it less likely to end with Bernie actually controlling the most delegates or having the delegate count be so close that the Bernie bros will feel like they have been cheated. But Joe and the Dems still have some major roadblocks to a victory in November.

First of all, Joe, whom I most assuredly prefer to Bernie Sanders, will be 78 by November and has shown some signs of mental slippage. People coming to his defense say that he has “always” been gaffe prone, which I would suggest is a weak defense, but most people are recognizing that he has gotten worse. He has called himself an “old guy” and I think has promised not to run for a second term, which may cause many to ask if he is capable of being effective in his first term.

Second, Joe needs to be careful how he tries to merge his moderate lane with the progressive lane of the Democrat Party. In his effort just to win Texas, he sidled up to Beto O’Rourke and after that win said that Beto would, “take care of the gun problem with me. You’re going to be the one who leads this effort.” Beto is the guy who suggested he would send people door to door to confiscate legally purchased guns. There is a wide median between the Bernie voters and the Biden voters and bringing them together will be difficult.

Finally, Trump is going to make a huge deal out of Joe and Hunter Biden’s dealings in Ukraine. You may not like it. You may think it isn’t fair, but it is going to happen. At best, Hunter’s dealing with Ukraine and China while his father was Vice President was a conflict of interest. The Obama administration voiced their disapproval and both Joe and Hunter have stated that they wouldn’t do it again, suggesting that it was at best poor judgement. Trump is going to pound on that issue.

I still think it is a tall order for the Dems to win the Whitehouse in the fall, but a slight opening has been made by the Democrat establishment. Joe will still need a lot of help to squeeze through it.

PS – Chuck Schumer should just apologize and move on if he knows what’s best for himself and for the justice system and for the country.