Want the Truth about the Midterms?

Republican Bloodbath in Midterms? Not so Fast!
The View from the Middle

We were just celebrating New Year’s Eve of 2017 last night, and Democrats have all but declared the 2018-midterm elections over. We are almost 11 months away from these elections, which is a lifetime in politics, and Democrats are planning what offices they will occupy after the wave election occurs in November of 2018. So you ask, is this confidence based in reality? Or, is this a delusional pipe dream from a party that has lost 14 Senate seats and 69 House seats since 2008 and control of both Houses of Congress? And let’s not forget the over one thousand state legislature seats lost across the country.
In reality, there is a little history and some current polling that supports the Democrats’ “enthusiasm”, but there is also some wishful thinking that might be clouding their vision. History would suggest that the President’s party will lose seats in the House and often the Senate in midterm elections. In fact, since FDR the President’s party has lost seats in the House 86% of the time. Remember that President Obama lost 63 House seats in his first midterm election, which he described as a “shellacking”. Is it because there are no Presidential coattails in midterms? Is it a measure of an angry opposition base, or is it just America’s desire to seek balance in Washington (my personal theory)? I don’t know, but it is historic.
There is also some polling data that might support some Democratic optimism. First, the President’s approval rating is only about 39% right now, and that can’t be seen as a positive. Second, in a Politico generic poll, Democrats hold about a 10-point edge (44 to 34) for these congressional seats. I don’t want to throw water on the Dems self assurance, but Trump’s approval rating is likely to go up once people start experiencing their tax cuts next year, and when you actually start putting names on the ballot, we will all be reminded of the advantage of incumbency. There is a saying in congressional elections that says, “people hate congress, but they love their congressman.”
Now, let me pour a dose of reality onto the Democrat’s early celebration clambake. While every seat in the House is up for grabs every two years, only a third of the Senate seats are contested. This year there are 34 seats up for reelection in the Senate, and Democrats currently hold 26 of those seats while Republicans hold only eight. Said another way, Democrats must defend 26 seats while Republicans only have to defend eight. And of those 34 seats, I would argue that only six are actually up for grabs; West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Florida and Arizona. Of these six states, five are currently held by Democrats and Trump won all of these states in 2016. In Fact, Trump won Missouri and Indiana by almost 20 points, and he won West Virginia by over 40 points. The fact is, the electoral map dramatically favors Republicans in 2018.
The next glass of cold water in the face of Democrats is that the RNC has more than doubled the fund raising dollars vs. the DNC since Election Day 2016 ($129 million vs. $58 million according to CNN). This is a measure of enthusiasm that Democrats discounted in 2016, to their own peril. Polls are a very passive measurement. All a person has to do is answer their phone. Obviously, Democrats are having a difficult time converting poll numbers to dollars, which represents a different level of commitment.
Finally, Democrats need to run on something more positive than “We hate Trump”. Unfortunately, they have voted against everything that Republicans have been trying to deliver by applying their “Resist, Persist, Insist and Throw Hissy Fits” strategy. Eventually they are going to have to stand “for” something. Right now they stand against tax cuts, border security, support for Israel, reduced regulations, free speech and saying “Merry Christmas”. I don’t think this is a winning strategy for 2018.
Contrary to CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and the rest of the alphabet soup that represents the mainstream media, I expect the 2018 midterms to be more of a dogfight and less of a Democrat rout. And, I actually have advice for both sides.
Democrats, get a strategy. You are going to have to tell America what you will do when you get into office if you are going to win. Even if it is raising taxes and increasing regulations, let us know where you stand and why. Stop listening to Hillary and her resist, persist, etc. platform.
Republicans, find some good candidates. No more Roy Moores. Especially in those battleground states I outlined above, you need decent people with some “smarts” and conservative values. You might even reach out to some women and minorities. Have you seen the young man running for Senate in Michigan, John James? I encourage everyone to check him out. The Republican Party needs more candidates like him!!