Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Trump Derangement Syndrome vs. Trump Worship

Trump Derangement Syndrome vs. Trump Worship
The View from the Middle

There is a joke out there that starts with Trump sitting on the deck of one of his yachts, and there is a person drowning a couple of hundred yards away. Trump jumps off his yacht, walks on the water and rescues the drowning victim. The headlines the next day read, “President Trump Can’t Swim”. Are the media that biased? According to Pew Research, media coverage of Trump is only 5% positive. The same study showed that President Obama’s positive coverage from the media was over eight times higher (42%). Does Trump’s record support that kind of disparity?
Then you have some people who would defend Donald Trump no matter what he did. During the campaign, Trump famously said, “I could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any voters.” Does he deserve that kind of loyalty? As usual, the truth lies somewhere between the Trump haters and the Trump groupies. And who better to give you a balanced view than me, The View From the Middle guy!!
To be fair, let’s start with the negative side. For a long time I have questioned President Trump’s behavior. He can be reactionary, and he tends to “punch down” to his critics. That’s because he is the President and, in effect, everyone is below him. I personally object to that sort of conduct and think it can demean the office of the President. I wish he wouldn’t tweet as much as he does or at least tweet with a positive message. John Sununu, former governor of New Hampshire and literally one of the smartest people in the world with an IQ over 170, sees this a little differently. While he personally wouldn’t behave as Trump does, he suggests that this is just Trump’s “style”, and while we may not like it, over 60 million people voted for it, and we get what we vote for.
I wish he was more accurate in some of his statements, but having the media or other politicians criticize his truthfulness is rich indeed. The Billy Bush tape showed that Trump can be crude, and of course I don’t like that, but people stretch that to label him a misogynist, which I don’t think he is. He wants border security, but that doesn’t make him a xenophobe or an Islamaphobe. He’s been called a bigot and a racist, but I doubt that Alveda King, MLK’s niece, would support him if he were. Multisyllabic insults are chic these days, but they are simply over exaggerations intended to inflame and divide.
But what the mainstream media is not covering are the results of this Presidency. The biggest thing they are ignoring is Trump’s impact on the Stock Market. For perspective, you have to understand that the Stock Market is a “forward looking” measure. It considers the policies of any President and predicts the impact of those policies on the economy in general and on the specific companies within its listing. Some people try to credit President Obama for the massive run-up from 18,000 before Trump’s election to over 25,000 today, but that is absurd.
The market went up over 250 points the day after the election and almost another 250 the next day. This was a direct comment on what the analysts believed were Trump’s policies. The run up to 25,000 was driven by the President’s announced approach to governing which included tax reductions, repatriation of overseas profits and the pruning of federal governmental regulations. With this perspective, they looked ahead and predicted a positive impact on American businesses. This drove the Dow to the 40% increase we have witnessed to date, which will impact pension funds and 401K’s for the middle class as well as the corporate boardroom. But the media has chosen to all but disregard this news.
President Trump should also get credit for much of the economic growth we saw in 2017. Since President Obama was still President during the first quarter, he should get credit for that quarter’s growth, which was 1.2%. For all eight years of Obama’s administration the economy grew at an average rate of 1.5%. But since that first year was part of the recession that occurred under Bush, let’s throw that out. Over the next seven years, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% and never got over 3% for any one year, and his last fiscal year ended with a 1.5% fourth quarter growth.
The last three quarters, fully under Trump, have shown growth of 3.1%, 3.2% and 3.9% (est.) respectfully. I credit Trump for this growth because his direction is very pro-business. The things that invite growth in an economy are; 1) A reasonable regulatory burden, 2) Availability of cash to invest, 3) Increased demand and 4) Increased productivity. I credit the early growth to Trump’s reduction in regulations, which quickly created a positive business environment. The tax cuts will generate future growth.
The corporate tax cuts and the repatriation of profits will increase the cash available for companies to invest in America. This incents companies to expand and grow, creating jobs and increasing wages for millions of people across the country (trickle down or supply side). The reduced personal tax rates will pump an extra 250 to 300 billion dollars into the pocketbooks of Americans who will in turn spend that money, stimulating the economy (bubble up or demand side).
This is all good news, but the mainstream media is neglecting to cover it. I even like what I’m hearing about the DACA-plus fix. If Trump is able to bring this home, it will give security to almost a million young people and probably their parents, and solve a problem that has been festering for almost 30 years. But, headlines will probably read, “Trump ignores the other ten million illegals”.

Final note on North Korea - This is the area that distresses me most. The world has a madman at the helm in North Korea, and I’m not sure if calling him “rocket man” or “short and fat” is the way to go. However, the South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, is crediting the sanctions employed by the United States with bringing Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table. Let’s see if this leads to some real positive changes of the Korean peninsula or if this is just another stalling tactic by the maniac head of state in the DPRK.

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