Immigration For Dummies
The View from the Middle
To be sure, the reference to “dummies” in the title of this piece is not directed at my readers, whom I believe are some of the most intelligent and well-informed people in the country. The dummies I’m referring to in my title are the dummies in Washington DC. Our politicians are either boneheaded and don’t understand the basics of the immigration issue or they are corrupt, manipulating scoundrels more intent on their power than actually fixing the problems we face as a country. In case they are just dim witted, I have an analogy that will help them understand the question of illegal immigration.
A few years ago, our house had a leak. The water was coming in from the second floor and pouring through a first floor window and eventually dumping gallons of water on our dining room’s hardwood floor. At the end of the stormy night, there was damage done to the ceiling, walls and floor in our dining room. What to do?
Some people were very willing to come in and fix all the water damage to our dining room, but Brenda and I had to think longer term than the next few days or even weeks. What if we fixed the dining room and then it rained again? If we hadn’t found and fixed the leak (the source of the water) we would be right back where we started after the next rain storm with a water damaged dining room.
So, Brenda and I decided to find and fix the leak before we fixed the damage done to our dining room. Now, I don’t want to paint my wife and I as some sort of geniuses. We just applied common sense and decided to mend the leak to avoid future damage before we repaired the dining room walls, ceiling and floor.
So let’s apply common sense to the illegal immigration problem in America. We have between ten and twenty million illegal aliens in this country who have come across our southern boarder over the years. Now, some politicians will tell us that we need to handle their fates right now and then down the road we can talk about securing our boarder. Isn’t that like fixing our dining room before we identify the leak and fix it?
Common sense would suggest that we need to address boarder security before or at least simultaneously to resolving the mess that our leaky boarders have created in the US. We need a wall in some places. Technology can plug some holes and people can be used in other areas to stem the tide of illegal immigration. If we can get Mexico to pay for it later on by reducing our aid to them or charging some tariffs on their exports to our country, that would be great. That would be like Brenda and I getting our insurance to cover our leak and damage. But, if Brenda and I couldn’t get insurance to pay for it, could we just ignore the problem? Of course not. We had resolve the issue no matter what, and the same thing applies to our southern boarder.
The President’s first offer to fix the DACA / boarder problem is actually very reasonable. It offers a path to citizenship for almost two million DACA adults and their parents. It requests $25 billion for boarder security (that’s more than just a wall). It doesn’t suggest to end chain migration, but to tighten it so that it can only be used for the nuclear family (parents & siblings) and it does suggest an end to the visa lottery program, which is to be replaced by a merit based immigration system to be devised in the future.
This all sounds like a great compromise and a lot of common sense to me. Beware of those who would demonize this plan. I would suggest that they either don’t want to solve the problem at all (Nancy Pelosi) or they just want to fix the dining room without finding and fixing the leak in the ceiling. They are either ignorant or corrupt and I will reject their denigration and ridicule as a lack of serious study or common sense.
Sunday, January 28, 2018
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
The Real S--t Hole
The View from the Middle
It is absolutely ridiculous that in today’s world which presents us such real issues as a nuclear armed North Korea, Islamic terrorism and a $20 trillion national debt that we have people producing crocodile tears of rage (really, Cory Booker?) over the use of the expression “shit hole”. While I have to admit that I have used that term and probably worse in my life, let me suggest that it is not appropriate and commit to replacing it in this piece with the slightly less offensive term “crap hole”. But let me shine some light of truth on this whole ludicrous situation.
It all started with “the snake” Dick Durbin (Democratic Senator from Illinois) sharing confidential comments made during a meeting at the White House between the President and key legislators. This kind of tattle telling is hardly a strategy to build trust. Plus, I honestly reviewed every President in my lifetime and asked myself if they would have used similar language. The passionate John Kennedy would have definitely used that term. How about LBJ? Are you kidding me? He would have used that term while sitting on the crap hole. Clinton, Obama, even Reagan? Absolutely! Yet, back then it was an unwritten rule that members of Congress and the media wouldn’t report such insignificant and inconsequential slips.
But “the snake” Dick Durbin was looking for anything that could throw a monkey wrench in the immigration discussion, because he is terrified that Trump will actually solve this issue in a year when Durbin and the Democrats ignored it for the eight previous years. Then he went on to suggest that he could read Trump’s mind and said that this term was directed at the people of these countries. Well Dicky, let me correct your interpretation. A crap hole is, by definition, a place and not a person. And Dicky, when was the last time you vacationed in Somalia, The Congo, Mali or Sudan? In fact, when I looked up the 10 worst countries in Africa, the author actually used the term “shit hole” to describe Uganda. It is the governments that make these countries crap holes, not the people.
And then Chuck Schumer and the Democrats shut down the government ever so briefly over DACA, an issue that was already being debated throughout Congress and had a date-urgent in March. Why would they do that? The answer is very simple. They knew that a resolution to this issue was finally going to be reached under the Trump Presidency and they were desperate to figure out how to take credit for it. As I said before, they had eight years to solve it under Obama and they couldn’t. All they were able to muster was an unconstitutional executive order.
Love him or hate him, Trump did the right thing back in September by terminating Obama’s illegal executive order. This is forcing the Congress to do their damned jobs and finally develop a legislative fix for these DACA kids, who aren’t really “kids” anymore. These DACA kids should be praising this President for finally forcing the issue which I believe will be resolved by February 8th or at a minimum by March 5th, when the executive protection runs out.
All of the deception, political posturing and back stabbing that we witnessed over the last couple of weeks just reinforces that the real “crap hole” is Washington DC. Call it the “swamp” or call it a “crap hole”, it is the intransigence and dysfunction in Washington that is driving the average American to distraction. Even on the fate of these dreamers, which three out of four Americans sympathize with, we have one party that doesn’t want to solve this issue because they believe they gain political advantage when it is unanswered. Then you have the other party that needs to have a gun to its head to be forced to do the right thing. The lives of these young people protected by DACA seem to be a secondary issue at best.
Maybe the most important promise Trump can keep is to “drain the swamp”, or “crap hole” if you wish, in Washington DC. A DACA fix with border security, dramatic reforms to chain migration and the end of the visa lottery system would be a nice positive step to draining the swamp or flushing the crap hole, depending on your metaphor. My prediction is that a DACA fix WILL get passed and Washington DC will begin to smell a little less offensive. And the real winners will be – We The People!!!
The View from the Middle
It is absolutely ridiculous that in today’s world which presents us such real issues as a nuclear armed North Korea, Islamic terrorism and a $20 trillion national debt that we have people producing crocodile tears of rage (really, Cory Booker?) over the use of the expression “shit hole”. While I have to admit that I have used that term and probably worse in my life, let me suggest that it is not appropriate and commit to replacing it in this piece with the slightly less offensive term “crap hole”. But let me shine some light of truth on this whole ludicrous situation.
It all started with “the snake” Dick Durbin (Democratic Senator from Illinois) sharing confidential comments made during a meeting at the White House between the President and key legislators. This kind of tattle telling is hardly a strategy to build trust. Plus, I honestly reviewed every President in my lifetime and asked myself if they would have used similar language. The passionate John Kennedy would have definitely used that term. How about LBJ? Are you kidding me? He would have used that term while sitting on the crap hole. Clinton, Obama, even Reagan? Absolutely! Yet, back then it was an unwritten rule that members of Congress and the media wouldn’t report such insignificant and inconsequential slips.
But “the snake” Dick Durbin was looking for anything that could throw a monkey wrench in the immigration discussion, because he is terrified that Trump will actually solve this issue in a year when Durbin and the Democrats ignored it for the eight previous years. Then he went on to suggest that he could read Trump’s mind and said that this term was directed at the people of these countries. Well Dicky, let me correct your interpretation. A crap hole is, by definition, a place and not a person. And Dicky, when was the last time you vacationed in Somalia, The Congo, Mali or Sudan? In fact, when I looked up the 10 worst countries in Africa, the author actually used the term “shit hole” to describe Uganda. It is the governments that make these countries crap holes, not the people.
And then Chuck Schumer and the Democrats shut down the government ever so briefly over DACA, an issue that was already being debated throughout Congress and had a date-urgent in March. Why would they do that? The answer is very simple. They knew that a resolution to this issue was finally going to be reached under the Trump Presidency and they were desperate to figure out how to take credit for it. As I said before, they had eight years to solve it under Obama and they couldn’t. All they were able to muster was an unconstitutional executive order.
Love him or hate him, Trump did the right thing back in September by terminating Obama’s illegal executive order. This is forcing the Congress to do their damned jobs and finally develop a legislative fix for these DACA kids, who aren’t really “kids” anymore. These DACA kids should be praising this President for finally forcing the issue which I believe will be resolved by February 8th or at a minimum by March 5th, when the executive protection runs out.
All of the deception, political posturing and back stabbing that we witnessed over the last couple of weeks just reinforces that the real “crap hole” is Washington DC. Call it the “swamp” or call it a “crap hole”, it is the intransigence and dysfunction in Washington that is driving the average American to distraction. Even on the fate of these dreamers, which three out of four Americans sympathize with, we have one party that doesn’t want to solve this issue because they believe they gain political advantage when it is unanswered. Then you have the other party that needs to have a gun to its head to be forced to do the right thing. The lives of these young people protected by DACA seem to be a secondary issue at best.
Maybe the most important promise Trump can keep is to “drain the swamp”, or “crap hole” if you wish, in Washington DC. A DACA fix with border security, dramatic reforms to chain migration and the end of the visa lottery system would be a nice positive step to draining the swamp or flushing the crap hole, depending on your metaphor. My prediction is that a DACA fix WILL get passed and Washington DC will begin to smell a little less offensive. And the real winners will be – We The People!!!
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
The Government Shutdown
The Government Shutdown
The View from the Middle
It was freezing cold here yesterday in Northwest Arkansas, a bit like a snow day of old when I was growing up in northern Indiana. I’m a little older now, so instead of going sledding or having a snowball fight, my wife and I snuggled on the couch and binge watched the Hunger Games series. It’s a classic story of good vs. evil. It’s an inspiring tale of the battle between man’s unquenchable desire for freedom and the insidious “Capitol”.
“The Capitol” was a sinister and gluttonous center of a country that it divided into twelve districts. The Capitol sucked the resources out of all the districts and then squandered them on its own decadent, selfish and wasteful lifestyle. The Capitol isolated the rest of the country into silo districts to prevent any form of unity and even pitted the districts against each other by forcing them to participate in the “Hunger Games” each year.
How could they do that, you ask? We are left to imagine the path The Capitol took to convince these districts to give up so much and accept a meager, barely life supportive existence. First, they had to disarm the districts. There is a minimum of weapons in the districts. We can only assume that The Capitol convinced its citizens to give up their weapons with a promise of protection and safety.
The Capitol also “provided” housing for its citizens, which allowed them to segregate the people into manageable groups. While their existence is Spartan, it’s sufficient to keep them alive. And The Capitol attempts to persuade the districts that they should actually take pride in The Capitol’s voracious, indulgent lifestyle, because it is they who provide it.
The Capitol also establishes a propaganda campaign of misleading, deceptive and even dishonest rhetoric to keep the districts off balance. While President Snow appears “fatherly” in all of his telecasts, he is actually condescending in his attitude of the people in the districts. In fact, in the final episode, he admits the way he feels about the districts. He says, “They don’t understand our sophistication (in The Capitol)”. Sophistication? Is that what we should call it?
Sorry, this is a huge tangent, but The Capitol reminds me of some place here in America. What is that place? Oh well, let me get back on subject. Should we have a government shutdown? Who cares! Despite all of the “sky is falling” rhetoric, nothing happens and nothing changes. Even when the Obama administration tried to make that shutdown as painful as possible by barricading open-air monuments and state parks, nothing changed. Government workers receive a paid vacation, because their salaries were paid retroactively. Nothing seems to change to vicious, deceitful, devious hogwash that comes out of our nation’s capital.
Ahhhhhh! It just came to me!
Let's also be honest with ourselves. DACA will be fixed by early March and Democrats are simply terrified that after eight years of ignoring this issue under the Obama administration, it will be resolved by the Trump administration. This shutdown is just their feeble attempt to get credit for that fix. Call me cynical, but I think politicians, in this case the Democrats, are more concerned about getting the laurels than they are about the actual lives of the very dreamers to pretend to care about.
The View from the Middle
It was freezing cold here yesterday in Northwest Arkansas, a bit like a snow day of old when I was growing up in northern Indiana. I’m a little older now, so instead of going sledding or having a snowball fight, my wife and I snuggled on the couch and binge watched the Hunger Games series. It’s a classic story of good vs. evil. It’s an inspiring tale of the battle between man’s unquenchable desire for freedom and the insidious “Capitol”.
“The Capitol” was a sinister and gluttonous center of a country that it divided into twelve districts. The Capitol sucked the resources out of all the districts and then squandered them on its own decadent, selfish and wasteful lifestyle. The Capitol isolated the rest of the country into silo districts to prevent any form of unity and even pitted the districts against each other by forcing them to participate in the “Hunger Games” each year.
How could they do that, you ask? We are left to imagine the path The Capitol took to convince these districts to give up so much and accept a meager, barely life supportive existence. First, they had to disarm the districts. There is a minimum of weapons in the districts. We can only assume that The Capitol convinced its citizens to give up their weapons with a promise of protection and safety.
The Capitol also “provided” housing for its citizens, which allowed them to segregate the people into manageable groups. While their existence is Spartan, it’s sufficient to keep them alive. And The Capitol attempts to persuade the districts that they should actually take pride in The Capitol’s voracious, indulgent lifestyle, because it is they who provide it.
The Capitol also establishes a propaganda campaign of misleading, deceptive and even dishonest rhetoric to keep the districts off balance. While President Snow appears “fatherly” in all of his telecasts, he is actually condescending in his attitude of the people in the districts. In fact, in the final episode, he admits the way he feels about the districts. He says, “They don’t understand our sophistication (in The Capitol)”. Sophistication? Is that what we should call it?
Sorry, this is a huge tangent, but The Capitol reminds me of some place here in America. What is that place? Oh well, let me get back on subject. Should we have a government shutdown? Who cares! Despite all of the “sky is falling” rhetoric, nothing happens and nothing changes. Even when the Obama administration tried to make that shutdown as painful as possible by barricading open-air monuments and state parks, nothing changed. Government workers receive a paid vacation, because their salaries were paid retroactively. Nothing seems to change to vicious, deceitful, devious hogwash that comes out of our nation’s capital.
Ahhhhhh! It just came to me!
Let's also be honest with ourselves. DACA will be fixed by early March and Democrats are simply terrified that after eight years of ignoring this issue under the Obama administration, it will be resolved by the Trump administration. This shutdown is just their feeble attempt to get credit for that fix. Call me cynical, but I think politicians, in this case the Democrats, are more concerned about getting the laurels than they are about the actual lives of the very dreamers to pretend to care about.
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Trump Derangement Syndrome vs. Trump Worship
Trump Derangement Syndrome vs. Trump Worship
The View from the Middle
There is a joke out there that starts with Trump sitting on the deck of one of his yachts, and there is a person drowning a couple of hundred yards away. Trump jumps off his yacht, walks on the water and rescues the drowning victim. The headlines the next day read, “President Trump Can’t Swim”. Are the media that biased? According to Pew Research, media coverage of Trump is only 5% positive. The same study showed that President Obama’s positive coverage from the media was over eight times higher (42%). Does Trump’s record support that kind of disparity?
Then you have some people who would defend Donald Trump no matter what he did. During the campaign, Trump famously said, “I could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any voters.” Does he deserve that kind of loyalty? As usual, the truth lies somewhere between the Trump haters and the Trump groupies. And who better to give you a balanced view than me, The View From the Middle guy!!
To be fair, let’s start with the negative side. For a long time I have questioned President Trump’s behavior. He can be reactionary, and he tends to “punch down” to his critics. That’s because he is the President and, in effect, everyone is below him. I personally object to that sort of conduct and think it can demean the office of the President. I wish he wouldn’t tweet as much as he does or at least tweet with a positive message. John Sununu, former governor of New Hampshire and literally one of the smartest people in the world with an IQ over 170, sees this a little differently. While he personally wouldn’t behave as Trump does, he suggests that this is just Trump’s “style”, and while we may not like it, over 60 million people voted for it, and we get what we vote for.
I wish he was more accurate in some of his statements, but having the media or other politicians criticize his truthfulness is rich indeed. The Billy Bush tape showed that Trump can be crude, and of course I don’t like that, but people stretch that to label him a misogynist, which I don’t think he is. He wants border security, but that doesn’t make him a xenophobe or an Islamaphobe. He’s been called a bigot and a racist, but I doubt that Alveda King, MLK’s niece, would support him if he were. Multisyllabic insults are chic these days, but they are simply over exaggerations intended to inflame and divide.
But what the mainstream media is not covering are the results of this Presidency. The biggest thing they are ignoring is Trump’s impact on the Stock Market. For perspective, you have to understand that the Stock Market is a “forward looking” measure. It considers the policies of any President and predicts the impact of those policies on the economy in general and on the specific companies within its listing. Some people try to credit President Obama for the massive run-up from 18,000 before Trump’s election to over 25,000 today, but that is absurd.
The market went up over 250 points the day after the election and almost another 250 the next day. This was a direct comment on what the analysts believed were Trump’s policies. The run up to 25,000 was driven by the President’s announced approach to governing which included tax reductions, repatriation of overseas profits and the pruning of federal governmental regulations. With this perspective, they looked ahead and predicted a positive impact on American businesses. This drove the Dow to the 40% increase we have witnessed to date, which will impact pension funds and 401K’s for the middle class as well as the corporate boardroom. But the media has chosen to all but disregard this news.
President Trump should also get credit for much of the economic growth we saw in 2017. Since President Obama was still President during the first quarter, he should get credit for that quarter’s growth, which was 1.2%. For all eight years of Obama’s administration the economy grew at an average rate of 1.5%. But since that first year was part of the recession that occurred under Bush, let’s throw that out. Over the next seven years, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% and never got over 3% for any one year, and his last fiscal year ended with a 1.5% fourth quarter growth.
The last three quarters, fully under Trump, have shown growth of 3.1%, 3.2% and 3.9% (est.) respectfully. I credit Trump for this growth because his direction is very pro-business. The things that invite growth in an economy are; 1) A reasonable regulatory burden, 2) Availability of cash to invest, 3) Increased demand and 4) Increased productivity. I credit the early growth to Trump’s reduction in regulations, which quickly created a positive business environment. The tax cuts will generate future growth.
The corporate tax cuts and the repatriation of profits will increase the cash available for companies to invest in America. This incents companies to expand and grow, creating jobs and increasing wages for millions of people across the country (trickle down or supply side). The reduced personal tax rates will pump an extra 250 to 300 billion dollars into the pocketbooks of Americans who will in turn spend that money, stimulating the economy (bubble up or demand side).
This is all good news, but the mainstream media is neglecting to cover it. I even like what I’m hearing about the DACA-plus fix. If Trump is able to bring this home, it will give security to almost a million young people and probably their parents, and solve a problem that has been festering for almost 30 years. But, headlines will probably read, “Trump ignores the other ten million illegals”.
Final note on North Korea - This is the area that distresses me most. The world has a madman at the helm in North Korea, and I’m not sure if calling him “rocket man” or “short and fat” is the way to go. However, the South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, is crediting the sanctions employed by the United States with bringing Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table. Let’s see if this leads to some real positive changes of the Korean peninsula or if this is just another stalling tactic by the maniac head of state in the DPRK.
The View from the Middle
There is a joke out there that starts with Trump sitting on the deck of one of his yachts, and there is a person drowning a couple of hundred yards away. Trump jumps off his yacht, walks on the water and rescues the drowning victim. The headlines the next day read, “President Trump Can’t Swim”. Are the media that biased? According to Pew Research, media coverage of Trump is only 5% positive. The same study showed that President Obama’s positive coverage from the media was over eight times higher (42%). Does Trump’s record support that kind of disparity?
Then you have some people who would defend Donald Trump no matter what he did. During the campaign, Trump famously said, “I could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any voters.” Does he deserve that kind of loyalty? As usual, the truth lies somewhere between the Trump haters and the Trump groupies. And who better to give you a balanced view than me, The View From the Middle guy!!
To be fair, let’s start with the negative side. For a long time I have questioned President Trump’s behavior. He can be reactionary, and he tends to “punch down” to his critics. That’s because he is the President and, in effect, everyone is below him. I personally object to that sort of conduct and think it can demean the office of the President. I wish he wouldn’t tweet as much as he does or at least tweet with a positive message. John Sununu, former governor of New Hampshire and literally one of the smartest people in the world with an IQ over 170, sees this a little differently. While he personally wouldn’t behave as Trump does, he suggests that this is just Trump’s “style”, and while we may not like it, over 60 million people voted for it, and we get what we vote for.
I wish he was more accurate in some of his statements, but having the media or other politicians criticize his truthfulness is rich indeed. The Billy Bush tape showed that Trump can be crude, and of course I don’t like that, but people stretch that to label him a misogynist, which I don’t think he is. He wants border security, but that doesn’t make him a xenophobe or an Islamaphobe. He’s been called a bigot and a racist, but I doubt that Alveda King, MLK’s niece, would support him if he were. Multisyllabic insults are chic these days, but they are simply over exaggerations intended to inflame and divide.
But what the mainstream media is not covering are the results of this Presidency. The biggest thing they are ignoring is Trump’s impact on the Stock Market. For perspective, you have to understand that the Stock Market is a “forward looking” measure. It considers the policies of any President and predicts the impact of those policies on the economy in general and on the specific companies within its listing. Some people try to credit President Obama for the massive run-up from 18,000 before Trump’s election to over 25,000 today, but that is absurd.
The market went up over 250 points the day after the election and almost another 250 the next day. This was a direct comment on what the analysts believed were Trump’s policies. The run up to 25,000 was driven by the President’s announced approach to governing which included tax reductions, repatriation of overseas profits and the pruning of federal governmental regulations. With this perspective, they looked ahead and predicted a positive impact on American businesses. This drove the Dow to the 40% increase we have witnessed to date, which will impact pension funds and 401K’s for the middle class as well as the corporate boardroom. But the media has chosen to all but disregard this news.
President Trump should also get credit for much of the economic growth we saw in 2017. Since President Obama was still President during the first quarter, he should get credit for that quarter’s growth, which was 1.2%. For all eight years of Obama’s administration the economy grew at an average rate of 1.5%. But since that first year was part of the recession that occurred under Bush, let’s throw that out. Over the next seven years, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% and never got over 3% for any one year, and his last fiscal year ended with a 1.5% fourth quarter growth.
The last three quarters, fully under Trump, have shown growth of 3.1%, 3.2% and 3.9% (est.) respectfully. I credit Trump for this growth because his direction is very pro-business. The things that invite growth in an economy are; 1) A reasonable regulatory burden, 2) Availability of cash to invest, 3) Increased demand and 4) Increased productivity. I credit the early growth to Trump’s reduction in regulations, which quickly created a positive business environment. The tax cuts will generate future growth.
The corporate tax cuts and the repatriation of profits will increase the cash available for companies to invest in America. This incents companies to expand and grow, creating jobs and increasing wages for millions of people across the country (trickle down or supply side). The reduced personal tax rates will pump an extra 250 to 300 billion dollars into the pocketbooks of Americans who will in turn spend that money, stimulating the economy (bubble up or demand side).
This is all good news, but the mainstream media is neglecting to cover it. I even like what I’m hearing about the DACA-plus fix. If Trump is able to bring this home, it will give security to almost a million young people and probably their parents, and solve a problem that has been festering for almost 30 years. But, headlines will probably read, “Trump ignores the other ten million illegals”.
Final note on North Korea - This is the area that distresses me most. The world has a madman at the helm in North Korea, and I’m not sure if calling him “rocket man” or “short and fat” is the way to go. However, the South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, is crediting the sanctions employed by the United States with bringing Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table. Let’s see if this leads to some real positive changes of the Korean peninsula or if this is just another stalling tactic by the maniac head of state in the DPRK.
Monday, January 1, 2018
Want the Truth about the Midterms?
Republican Bloodbath in Midterms? Not so Fast!
The View from the Middle
We were just celebrating New Year’s Eve of 2017 last night, and Democrats have all but declared the 2018-midterm elections over. We are almost 11 months away from these elections, which is a lifetime in politics, and Democrats are planning what offices they will occupy after the wave election occurs in November of 2018. So you ask, is this confidence based in reality? Or, is this a delusional pipe dream from a party that has lost 14 Senate seats and 69 House seats since 2008 and control of both Houses of Congress? And let’s not forget the over one thousand state legislature seats lost across the country.
In reality, there is a little history and some current polling that supports the Democrats’ “enthusiasm”, but there is also some wishful thinking that might be clouding their vision. History would suggest that the President’s party will lose seats in the House and often the Senate in midterm elections. In fact, since FDR the President’s party has lost seats in the House 86% of the time. Remember that President Obama lost 63 House seats in his first midterm election, which he described as a “shellacking”. Is it because there are no Presidential coattails in midterms? Is it a measure of an angry opposition base, or is it just America’s desire to seek balance in Washington (my personal theory)? I don’t know, but it is historic.
There is also some polling data that might support some Democratic optimism. First, the President’s approval rating is only about 39% right now, and that can’t be seen as a positive. Second, in a Politico generic poll, Democrats hold about a 10-point edge (44 to 34) for these congressional seats. I don’t want to throw water on the Dems self assurance, but Trump’s approval rating is likely to go up once people start experiencing their tax cuts next year, and when you actually start putting names on the ballot, we will all be reminded of the advantage of incumbency. There is a saying in congressional elections that says, “people hate congress, but they love their congressman.”
Now, let me pour a dose of reality onto the Democrat’s early celebration clambake. While every seat in the House is up for grabs every two years, only a third of the Senate seats are contested. This year there are 34 seats up for reelection in the Senate, and Democrats currently hold 26 of those seats while Republicans hold only eight. Said another way, Democrats must defend 26 seats while Republicans only have to defend eight. And of those 34 seats, I would argue that only six are actually up for grabs; West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Florida and Arizona. Of these six states, five are currently held by Democrats and Trump won all of these states in 2016. In Fact, Trump won Missouri and Indiana by almost 20 points, and he won West Virginia by over 40 points. The fact is, the electoral map dramatically favors Republicans in 2018.
The next glass of cold water in the face of Democrats is that the RNC has more than doubled the fund raising dollars vs. the DNC since Election Day 2016 ($129 million vs. $58 million according to CNN). This is a measure of enthusiasm that Democrats discounted in 2016, to their own peril. Polls are a very passive measurement. All a person has to do is answer their phone. Obviously, Democrats are having a difficult time converting poll numbers to dollars, which represents a different level of commitment.
Finally, Democrats need to run on something more positive than “We hate Trump”. Unfortunately, they have voted against everything that Republicans have been trying to deliver by applying their “Resist, Persist, Insist and Throw Hissy Fits” strategy. Eventually they are going to have to stand “for” something. Right now they stand against tax cuts, border security, support for Israel, reduced regulations, free speech and saying “Merry Christmas”. I don’t think this is a winning strategy for 2018.
Contrary to CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and the rest of the alphabet soup that represents the mainstream media, I expect the 2018 midterms to be more of a dogfight and less of a Democrat rout. And, I actually have advice for both sides.
Democrats, get a strategy. You are going to have to tell America what you will do when you get into office if you are going to win. Even if it is raising taxes and increasing regulations, let us know where you stand and why. Stop listening to Hillary and her resist, persist, etc. platform.
Republicans, find some good candidates. No more Roy Moores. Especially in those battleground states I outlined above, you need decent people with some “smarts” and conservative values. You might even reach out to some women and minorities. Have you seen the young man running for Senate in Michigan, John James? I encourage everyone to check him out. The Republican Party needs more candidates like him!!
The View from the Middle
We were just celebrating New Year’s Eve of 2017 last night, and Democrats have all but declared the 2018-midterm elections over. We are almost 11 months away from these elections, which is a lifetime in politics, and Democrats are planning what offices they will occupy after the wave election occurs in November of 2018. So you ask, is this confidence based in reality? Or, is this a delusional pipe dream from a party that has lost 14 Senate seats and 69 House seats since 2008 and control of both Houses of Congress? And let’s not forget the over one thousand state legislature seats lost across the country.
In reality, there is a little history and some current polling that supports the Democrats’ “enthusiasm”, but there is also some wishful thinking that might be clouding their vision. History would suggest that the President’s party will lose seats in the House and often the Senate in midterm elections. In fact, since FDR the President’s party has lost seats in the House 86% of the time. Remember that President Obama lost 63 House seats in his first midterm election, which he described as a “shellacking”. Is it because there are no Presidential coattails in midterms? Is it a measure of an angry opposition base, or is it just America’s desire to seek balance in Washington (my personal theory)? I don’t know, but it is historic.
There is also some polling data that might support some Democratic optimism. First, the President’s approval rating is only about 39% right now, and that can’t be seen as a positive. Second, in a Politico generic poll, Democrats hold about a 10-point edge (44 to 34) for these congressional seats. I don’t want to throw water on the Dems self assurance, but Trump’s approval rating is likely to go up once people start experiencing their tax cuts next year, and when you actually start putting names on the ballot, we will all be reminded of the advantage of incumbency. There is a saying in congressional elections that says, “people hate congress, but they love their congressman.”
Now, let me pour a dose of reality onto the Democrat’s early celebration clambake. While every seat in the House is up for grabs every two years, only a third of the Senate seats are contested. This year there are 34 seats up for reelection in the Senate, and Democrats currently hold 26 of those seats while Republicans hold only eight. Said another way, Democrats must defend 26 seats while Republicans only have to defend eight. And of those 34 seats, I would argue that only six are actually up for grabs; West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Florida and Arizona. Of these six states, five are currently held by Democrats and Trump won all of these states in 2016. In Fact, Trump won Missouri and Indiana by almost 20 points, and he won West Virginia by over 40 points. The fact is, the electoral map dramatically favors Republicans in 2018.
The next glass of cold water in the face of Democrats is that the RNC has more than doubled the fund raising dollars vs. the DNC since Election Day 2016 ($129 million vs. $58 million according to CNN). This is a measure of enthusiasm that Democrats discounted in 2016, to their own peril. Polls are a very passive measurement. All a person has to do is answer their phone. Obviously, Democrats are having a difficult time converting poll numbers to dollars, which represents a different level of commitment.
Finally, Democrats need to run on something more positive than “We hate Trump”. Unfortunately, they have voted against everything that Republicans have been trying to deliver by applying their “Resist, Persist, Insist and Throw Hissy Fits” strategy. Eventually they are going to have to stand “for” something. Right now they stand against tax cuts, border security, support for Israel, reduced regulations, free speech and saying “Merry Christmas”. I don’t think this is a winning strategy for 2018.
Contrary to CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and the rest of the alphabet soup that represents the mainstream media, I expect the 2018 midterms to be more of a dogfight and less of a Democrat rout. And, I actually have advice for both sides.
Democrats, get a strategy. You are going to have to tell America what you will do when you get into office if you are going to win. Even if it is raising taxes and increasing regulations, let us know where you stand and why. Stop listening to Hillary and her resist, persist, etc. platform.
Republicans, find some good candidates. No more Roy Moores. Especially in those battleground states I outlined above, you need decent people with some “smarts” and conservative values. You might even reach out to some women and minorities. Have you seen the young man running for Senate in Michigan, John James? I encourage everyone to check him out. The Republican Party needs more candidates like him!!
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