Election Post Mortem

 

I had planned to write this article last Wednesday, the day after the election, but who would have thought that there would be 12 races still unsettled a week later that could impact the fate of both the House and the Senate.  There is one thing, however, that is VERY clear, and that is that the claim that our Democracy was at risk during this election was pure nonsense and fearmongering.  According to the demonizing rhetoric of the President and Democrats, these unexpectedly poor election results for Republicans should have delivered the very rioting and violence they were promising.  But, the violence never came because the suggestion that half of our country is full of bigoted, racist fascists is simply untrue.  Do you think we will get an apology for that total mischaracterization of the virtue and temperament of our country?  Don’t hold your breath, despite the complete inaccuracy of their promises.

I think Greg Gutfeld, Fox Late Night comedian and political commentator, called this election just about perfectly.  He suggested that both sides had some things to celebrate but also things to regret.  Republicans did not perform as projected.  There was no “Red Tsunami”.  At best it was a red ripple.  The GOP will take the House and had surprising successes in Florida and New York.  In Florida, Ron DeSantis won that governorship by almost 20 points and established himself as a future leader of the Republican party.  In New York, Lee Zeldin lost the governor’s race but came close enough to flip four House seats, which will account for the entire GOP advantage in the House of Representatives in 2023.

Democrats did perform better than expectations, but expectations were pretty low.  They did maintain control of the Senate, and may even pick up a seat, depending on what happens in Georgia between Warnock and Walker.  However, some real Democrat all-stars went down in flames in 2022.  Stacey Abrams lost the governorship of Georgia (again) and lost decisively.  Beto O’Rourke got thumped in Texas as he lost to Greg Abbot, and maybe most shockingly, the DCCC (Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney lost his House seat to Republican Mike Lawler.

There are some more facts that we should all keep in mind.  First, in 2020, Joe Biden won the Presidential election with over 60 million votes compared to only about 75 million for Donald Trump.  In that environment, we should all have expected Democrats to pick up seats in the House.  In Fact, Nancy Pelosi projected that Dems would add 15 seats to their majority, yet Democrats actually LOST 13 seats in the House.  That was a 28-seat difference between expectations in 2020 and the actual results.  Only Nancy Pelosi and Democrats, with the support of the lame stream media, could spin this 26-seat loss in the House over the last two years as a victory.

Also, everyone knew that in 2022 the Senate was going to be difficult for the GOP to defend.  In the Senate, only about a third of the Senate runs every two years because of their six-year terms.  In 2022, there were 35 Senators up for re-election – 21 Republican and only 14 Democrats.  This was a difficult atmosphere for Republicans since they had to defend more incumbent seats.  In 2024, the situation is practically reversed with 23 Democrats defending their seats vs only 10 Republicans.  We will see how well they defend their 23 seats in two years that will, in effect, be in jeopardy.

And now we have a delusional Joe Biden suggesting that these razor thin voting margins and divided government is somehow a mandate for a continuation of his open border, big spending, “no more drilling” policies.  When asked “what he will change” given that 75% of the country believes America is on the “wrong track”, Joe said “NOTHING”!  And this is after he just said that he is willing to work across the aisle with Republicans to find solutions to the country’s problems.  Is he even listening to himself?  He certainly isn’t listening to the people of this country.

In my opinion, this midterm election was a mandate for bipartisanship.  Two years ago, we had a 50-50 Senate and a 12-seat majority for the Democrats in the House.  I suggested then that this was a demand for cooperation and Joe Biden seemed to agree, promising “unity” in his inaugural address.  Unfortunately, he has not delivered on that promise.  In fact, quite the opposite.  Now, we will probably have another 50-50 Senate and an even slimmer majority in the House, but now held by Republicans.  I can only hope that Joe Biden and the Democrats don’t misread the results of this election and fail to make course corrections in their policies.  That kind of blind stubbornness would be a disaster both for the Democrat Party and for our country.