News Flash – Congress Is Out of Touch
The View from the Middle
Let me create a backdrop for what Congress has been doing for the last couple of weeks. The country is in a virtual lockdown. Everyone in the country has been asked to work from home and use the many teleconferencing apps like Tencent Conference, WeChatWork and Zoom. This, of course, is the ultimate in social distancing and the most effective way to slow the spread of the Coronavirus. Recent surveys indicate that 90% of the country is following the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” guidelines. The other 10% should have their heads examined. I’m sure that 10% is full of 18-year-olds whose brains haven’t fully developed yet and, of course, our Congress.
My wife and I were sitting (more than six feet apart) this morning at home watching the news that Congress had passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES) by a vote of 96 to 0. I was encouraged that bipartisanship had finally been displayed by our politicians in Washington. Then my wife asked me, “I thought we had 100 Senators”. I explained to her that four Senators were self-quarantining themselves. Rand Paul (R-KY) has actually tested positive. Mike Lee and Mitt Romney (R-UT) have voluntarily isolated themselves because they had contact with Paul, and John Thune (R-SD) has gone back to South Dakota because he has displayed some symptoms. We don’t know his test results yet.
I applaud the Senators for their caution, but it also made me question the sanity of our congressional leadership. In today’s environment loaded with access to remote communications programs, why couldn’t they figure out how to let these four Senators vote on this massive and important legislation? The bigger question, given the state of our union and the Coronavirus, is why are the members of the House and Senate violating virtually every rule that they have asked us to heed. They are all performing, in my opinion, unnecessary travel. They are certainly having meetings with more than 10 people, maybe not while on camera, but certainly off. And I doubt they are abiding by the six-foot rule for social distancing. Why would they be doing this? The answer is simple. They are either stupid or so full of themselves that they think they are above all the rules they have put in place for the rest of us. And they aren’t stupid.
And now we have Congressman John Massey (I-KY, where the “I” stands for Idiot) is considering a delay of this vote in the House by demanding an in-person quorum and possibly even a roll call vote. This is the very definition of “anal retentive”, which I think can be more broadly applied to Congress as a whole.
Given the gravity of this situation, we should have expected our leaders to figure out how to allow these four Senators to vote remotely. The bigger question is, why aren’t they ALL at home tuned into Zoom or some other teleconferencing program to listen to and participate in debate and then to vote? They should be following the same guidelines they have placed on us. If they think a face-to-face meeting would help, use facetime or some other video conference app. Maybe not being together would actually speed up the process. Maybe Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and Steve Mnuchin need to be there, but do we really need all 535 members of Congress traveling to Washington DC?
Then, I began to think. Why should they ever go to Washington given all the wonderful communication technologies that exists today? At a minimum, why wouldn’t they dramatically reduce the massive costs of their first-class travel, gourmet breakfasts, lunches and dinners, deluxe accommodations and $500 bottles of wine? Actually, as I asked myself that question, I realized that my answer was in my question. They’re not stupid. They have been turned into a pampered, privileged, out of touch assemblage.
There is another reason why developing a remote voting and virtual meeting capability would be good for “We the People”. It would force our governmental representatives to spend more time with their constituents and less time with the lobbyists on K-street. Personally, I think this would be a huge win for our country.
The reality is, our Congress is still operating as if it were living in the 1800’s. Back then, our Senators and Representatives would travel in horse and buggy for days, not laying down in first class airline compartments, because they had no other means of getting together. They would meet for a few weeks and then take the grueling trip back home to perform their “day jobs” and live with the legislation they passed. The Walmart associates would call this, “eat what you cook”.
Maybe this crisis will have some unintended positive consequences. If the Senate and the House have to change their rules to allow for remote voting, they should do that right now. If this emergency brings Washington into the 21st century, that would be fantastic. If it brought Congress closer to the people they represent and farther away from the trappings of big government and K-street, that would be a great thing.
Friday, March 27, 2020
Thursday, March 19, 2020
A Coronavirus Reality Check - Part II
A Coronavirus Reality Check – Part II
The View from the Middle
A good friend of mine, who just happens to also be a brilliant doctor, called me yesterday with some comments about my recent posts concerning the Coronavirus. He agreed with the direction that my posts have taken, particularly concerning the counsel that I have been repeating from the government concerning basic hygiene and social distancing. He did, however, point out that if you simply do the math (that is divide the global deaths by the number of infected people worldwide) the death rate is slightly over 4%. The opposite side of that statistic is that 96% of people survive.
If you look at the US numbers as of this morning, 9,415 people have contracted the Coronavirus and we have experienced 150 deaths. That’s a 1.6% death rate in the America so far. This would suggest that more than 98% of people here will not succumb to this disease. Why the difference between the US and global numbers? We are earlier in the life of this virus, but we may have also done a better job in mitigating this virus. Many would suggest that we also have a better medical care system here than in China and even Italy, which is having a huge problem. I’ll get back to Italy because my friend had some warnings relating to their circumstances.
I don’t want to confuse my readers, but there is even a third death rate that you need to be aware of, and that is the projection by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who works at NIH (National Institute of Health) and is on the President’s Coronavirus task force. He estimates that the death rate for this virus is 1%, which is still a death rate ten times higher than our annual flu. This is the number that I have been using when I have said that 99% of people who contract this virus will survive.
Now, why is Dr. Fauci’s number lower than the actual math would suggest? Dr. Fauci believes that the denominator in our equations (the number of people infected) is too low. I, and I suspect Dr. Fauci, believe that the numbers from China are wrong. Either because their healthcare system isn’t as efficient as ours, or they are lying. Take your pick, their numbers are wrong. While it is much harder to ignore a dead body, it is much easier to overlook an infection, accidentally of intentionally. Even in the US, I expect our infected numbers to go up as the disease progresses and more testing is done.
Whether the recovery rate is 96% or 98% or 99%, neither my good friend nor I are suggesting that this is not a serious challenge for our country. The good doctor wanted me to point out that no matter what the overall death rate is, it is much higher in the elderly and those with underlying health issues such as diabetes, emphysema and heart disease. We don’t have that number, but it could be 10% or 20% or even higher. He wanted to warn these people to take extra precautions – wash hands often (particularly before eating), avoid unnecessary travel and practice social distancing. Actually, that’s not bad advice for all of us.
My good friend did applaud the new daily news briefs led by Vice President Pence and his Coronavirus task force. He particularly liked the 15 day “slow the spread” plan for all the reasons that I laid out in my article on that subject. He is confident that we will overcome this national health challenge, but would like to see our leadership learn from the real crisis occurring in Italy right now.
Italy got a slow start on their mitigation effort which allowed the spread of this disease to put tremendous pressure on their entire healthcare system. Italy shows us what can happen if we don’t take this threat seriously. Currently, their infection numbers are almost half of China’s, despite the fact that Italy has only 5% of the population of China. And they have experienced almost 3,000 deaths, almost the same number as China where this virus originated. My doctor/friend would encourage us all to take mitigation practices very seriously so we don’t become Italy, but crush this virus before it becomes rampant. Check the 15-day plan for specific details. He would also encourage the administration to build capacity on hospital space and supplies right now so that we don’t get behind the curve that Italy finds itself in back of today.
The good news is that I heard progress on all of these issues at the press briefing this morning. The capacity issue is being addressed, even with some pretty creative ideas. The now idle cruise line industry has offered the government the use of some of their ships as floating hospitals. This could be VERY effective in the three hot spots in the United States (California, New York and the state of Washington) all of which host many ports that could utilize this gift. There are also 10 counties in these states that account for 50% of the Coronavirus cases in the entire United States. They could use some creative solutions.
Masks, mostly to protect our valiant healthcare workers, are now being produced by the private part of Trump’s public/private partnership by the tens of millions per week. Producing and distributing respirators is another priority of this administration and it appears that they are on top of it. Drugs like Chloroquine, Remdesivir and Favipiravir are being fast-tracked in studies or in production to help treat those who have acquired the virus. These are not exactly cures for the Coronavirus, but they will reduce the symptoms, speed recovery and reduce the death rate.
My friend is optimistic that we will meet the challenge of the Coronavirus, but wants everyone to know that only if we take the appropriate steps today (check out the 15 day plan) can we avoid the issues that Italy is facing today.
The View from the Middle
A good friend of mine, who just happens to also be a brilliant doctor, called me yesterday with some comments about my recent posts concerning the Coronavirus. He agreed with the direction that my posts have taken, particularly concerning the counsel that I have been repeating from the government concerning basic hygiene and social distancing. He did, however, point out that if you simply do the math (that is divide the global deaths by the number of infected people worldwide) the death rate is slightly over 4%. The opposite side of that statistic is that 96% of people survive.
If you look at the US numbers as of this morning, 9,415 people have contracted the Coronavirus and we have experienced 150 deaths. That’s a 1.6% death rate in the America so far. This would suggest that more than 98% of people here will not succumb to this disease. Why the difference between the US and global numbers? We are earlier in the life of this virus, but we may have also done a better job in mitigating this virus. Many would suggest that we also have a better medical care system here than in China and even Italy, which is having a huge problem. I’ll get back to Italy because my friend had some warnings relating to their circumstances.
I don’t want to confuse my readers, but there is even a third death rate that you need to be aware of, and that is the projection by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who works at NIH (National Institute of Health) and is on the President’s Coronavirus task force. He estimates that the death rate for this virus is 1%, which is still a death rate ten times higher than our annual flu. This is the number that I have been using when I have said that 99% of people who contract this virus will survive.
Now, why is Dr. Fauci’s number lower than the actual math would suggest? Dr. Fauci believes that the denominator in our equations (the number of people infected) is too low. I, and I suspect Dr. Fauci, believe that the numbers from China are wrong. Either because their healthcare system isn’t as efficient as ours, or they are lying. Take your pick, their numbers are wrong. While it is much harder to ignore a dead body, it is much easier to overlook an infection, accidentally of intentionally. Even in the US, I expect our infected numbers to go up as the disease progresses and more testing is done.
Whether the recovery rate is 96% or 98% or 99%, neither my good friend nor I are suggesting that this is not a serious challenge for our country. The good doctor wanted me to point out that no matter what the overall death rate is, it is much higher in the elderly and those with underlying health issues such as diabetes, emphysema and heart disease. We don’t have that number, but it could be 10% or 20% or even higher. He wanted to warn these people to take extra precautions – wash hands often (particularly before eating), avoid unnecessary travel and practice social distancing. Actually, that’s not bad advice for all of us.
My good friend did applaud the new daily news briefs led by Vice President Pence and his Coronavirus task force. He particularly liked the 15 day “slow the spread” plan for all the reasons that I laid out in my article on that subject. He is confident that we will overcome this national health challenge, but would like to see our leadership learn from the real crisis occurring in Italy right now.
Italy got a slow start on their mitigation effort which allowed the spread of this disease to put tremendous pressure on their entire healthcare system. Italy shows us what can happen if we don’t take this threat seriously. Currently, their infection numbers are almost half of China’s, despite the fact that Italy has only 5% of the population of China. And they have experienced almost 3,000 deaths, almost the same number as China where this virus originated. My doctor/friend would encourage us all to take mitigation practices very seriously so we don’t become Italy, but crush this virus before it becomes rampant. Check the 15-day plan for specific details. He would also encourage the administration to build capacity on hospital space and supplies right now so that we don’t get behind the curve that Italy finds itself in back of today.
The good news is that I heard progress on all of these issues at the press briefing this morning. The capacity issue is being addressed, even with some pretty creative ideas. The now idle cruise line industry has offered the government the use of some of their ships as floating hospitals. This could be VERY effective in the three hot spots in the United States (California, New York and the state of Washington) all of which host many ports that could utilize this gift. There are also 10 counties in these states that account for 50% of the Coronavirus cases in the entire United States. They could use some creative solutions.
Masks, mostly to protect our valiant healthcare workers, are now being produced by the private part of Trump’s public/private partnership by the tens of millions per week. Producing and distributing respirators is another priority of this administration and it appears that they are on top of it. Drugs like Chloroquine, Remdesivir and Favipiravir are being fast-tracked in studies or in production to help treat those who have acquired the virus. These are not exactly cures for the Coronavirus, but they will reduce the symptoms, speed recovery and reduce the death rate.
My friend is optimistic that we will meet the challenge of the Coronavirus, but wants everyone to know that only if we take the appropriate steps today (check out the 15 day plan) can we avoid the issues that Italy is facing today.
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
The 15 Day Coronavirus "Slow the Spread" Plan
The 15 Day Coronavirus “Slow the Spread” Plan
The View from the Middle
There is an old adage that stipulates, “No one is perfect”. That may be more than just an axiom and probably should be stated as a fact. This adage/fact goes for countries as well. In the beginning stages of the Coronavirus spread, China was far from perfect. They hid information and or lied about its impact from other countries which allowed this virus to reach a pandemic level. Italy obviously fell asleep at the wheel and even here in the United States we were not perfect, but in my opinion, we were pretty darn good.
The travel ban to and from China was a great early move that, while actually criticized by some at the time, has been acknowledged by health professionals to have saved thousands of infections and maybe even lives. I questioned the travel ban on Europe a few days ago only to hear in the last couple of days that the epicenter of this virus has moved there. I guess the President’s task force was actually ahead of the game and made another good move with that ban. We have had some glitches with the test availability early on, but that now seems to have been fixed. I was at Quest Diagnostics this morning, just to have my blood drawn for a lipids test, and I asked about the Coronavirus testing. My nurse assured me that if anyone needed a test (recommended by their doctor) they are having no problems completing them.
Communications in the beginning was mixed. Trump, playing his dual role of “Encourager in Chief” and health advisor, may have been too positive. I think he was just trying to give some balance to the media who was in early-onset panic mode. I don’t think this caused anyone to book a cruise or plan a convention so few if any people suffered from his statements. For the last three weeks, however, since Pence was tapped to lead the Coronavirus task force, the communications have been excellent.
All of the advice from this task force has come from healthcare professionals like Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Deborah Birx and our country’s Surgeon General, Jerome Adams. Early on they communicated some common-sense practices that everyone should be following, like washing your hands, etc. I repeated that advice in my article on March 2nd. This task force has been meeting daily and almost without rest to track this disease around the world and around this country and giving their best counsel to the administration. They are now holding DAILY press briefings, which I encourage all of you watch. In fact, I would suggest you turn off the news and watch this press conference every day. You will be better informed and encouraged at the same time.
Yesterday, they announced a 15-day plan to slow the spread of the Coronavirus. This was brilliant in a number of ways. First of all, people are having a hard time grasping when this threat will be over. It’s too far away. The challenge is too big. This plan gives us all a short-term strategy that we can execute in the next two weeks that will have a major impact on America’s recovery. It reminds me of the movie “What About Bob” where Dr. Leo Marvin (played by Richard Dreyfuss) wrote a book called “Baby Steps”. His patient “Bob” is played by Bill Murray and suffers from seemingly countless phobias. Sounds a lot like our country right now. It’s just the kind of movie you may want to watch now to take you mind off of this virus. In the movie, the doctor’s book suggests that if you can’t grasp the end of a long project or assignment, you should make little, short-term goals (baby steps) that will eventually get you there. This 15 day plan is “just what the doctor ordered”, so to speak for our country.
Kudos to Pence, Fauci, Birx, Adams and the entire task force for utilizing this “baby steps” strategy for our entire country. For your convenience, I have included a link to the 15 Day Plan below. Just copy it into your browser and It will take you right there. THIS is the kind of information you should be consuming throughout this challenging time. And remember, 99% of the people who contract this virus will recover completely.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf
John Kennedy once said, “Victory (success) has a thousand fathers, but Defeat (failure) is an orphan.” If all of the steps that this administration is taking works, and the impact on America is less than predicted (and some predictions have been draconian) we will have every politician in America trying to take credit. Let’s just hope that happens and we can all laugh at their antics. God bless you all and this great country. Be healthy, sane and safe.
The View from the Middle
There is an old adage that stipulates, “No one is perfect”. That may be more than just an axiom and probably should be stated as a fact. This adage/fact goes for countries as well. In the beginning stages of the Coronavirus spread, China was far from perfect. They hid information and or lied about its impact from other countries which allowed this virus to reach a pandemic level. Italy obviously fell asleep at the wheel and even here in the United States we were not perfect, but in my opinion, we were pretty darn good.
The travel ban to and from China was a great early move that, while actually criticized by some at the time, has been acknowledged by health professionals to have saved thousands of infections and maybe even lives. I questioned the travel ban on Europe a few days ago only to hear in the last couple of days that the epicenter of this virus has moved there. I guess the President’s task force was actually ahead of the game and made another good move with that ban. We have had some glitches with the test availability early on, but that now seems to have been fixed. I was at Quest Diagnostics this morning, just to have my blood drawn for a lipids test, and I asked about the Coronavirus testing. My nurse assured me that if anyone needed a test (recommended by their doctor) they are having no problems completing them.
Communications in the beginning was mixed. Trump, playing his dual role of “Encourager in Chief” and health advisor, may have been too positive. I think he was just trying to give some balance to the media who was in early-onset panic mode. I don’t think this caused anyone to book a cruise or plan a convention so few if any people suffered from his statements. For the last three weeks, however, since Pence was tapped to lead the Coronavirus task force, the communications have been excellent.
All of the advice from this task force has come from healthcare professionals like Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Deborah Birx and our country’s Surgeon General, Jerome Adams. Early on they communicated some common-sense practices that everyone should be following, like washing your hands, etc. I repeated that advice in my article on March 2nd. This task force has been meeting daily and almost without rest to track this disease around the world and around this country and giving their best counsel to the administration. They are now holding DAILY press briefings, which I encourage all of you watch. In fact, I would suggest you turn off the news and watch this press conference every day. You will be better informed and encouraged at the same time.
Yesterday, they announced a 15-day plan to slow the spread of the Coronavirus. This was brilliant in a number of ways. First of all, people are having a hard time grasping when this threat will be over. It’s too far away. The challenge is too big. This plan gives us all a short-term strategy that we can execute in the next two weeks that will have a major impact on America’s recovery. It reminds me of the movie “What About Bob” where Dr. Leo Marvin (played by Richard Dreyfuss) wrote a book called “Baby Steps”. His patient “Bob” is played by Bill Murray and suffers from seemingly countless phobias. Sounds a lot like our country right now. It’s just the kind of movie you may want to watch now to take you mind off of this virus. In the movie, the doctor’s book suggests that if you can’t grasp the end of a long project or assignment, you should make little, short-term goals (baby steps) that will eventually get you there. This 15 day plan is “just what the doctor ordered”, so to speak for our country.
Kudos to Pence, Fauci, Birx, Adams and the entire task force for utilizing this “baby steps” strategy for our entire country. For your convenience, I have included a link to the 15 Day Plan below. Just copy it into your browser and It will take you right there. THIS is the kind of information you should be consuming throughout this challenging time. And remember, 99% of the people who contract this virus will recover completely.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf
John Kennedy once said, “Victory (success) has a thousand fathers, but Defeat (failure) is an orphan.” If all of the steps that this administration is taking works, and the impact on America is less than predicted (and some predictions have been draconian) we will have every politician in America trying to take credit. Let’s just hope that happens and we can all laugh at their antics. God bless you all and this great country. Be healthy, sane and safe.
Sunday, March 15, 2020
A Coronavirus Reality Check
A Coronavirus Reality Check
The View from the Middle
Weeks ago I made comparisons between the Coronavirus and the 2009-10 H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic. It seems that the mainstream media has finally caught up to me and has started to compare these two pandemics, because it gives us all great perspective through which we can view our current health crisis.
According to the CDC the Swine Flu infected almost 60 million people in the United States. To date, the Coronavirus has been contracted by less than 3,000 people in America. Just 10 years ago, H1N1 hospitalized over 265,000 people here and killed 12,650 Americans. As of today, the Coronavirus has killed 57 people in this country, and 37 of those mortalities have been in the state of Washington, and 25 of these fatalities came from one nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. Do the math, outside the state of Washington there have been only 20 deaths from Covid-19 (the Coronavirus) in The United States.
Despite the fact that the infection and mortality rates for the Swine Flu are almost identical to the Coronavirus, I don’t remember the 24-7 news coverage of the Swine Flu and the daily counts of infections and deaths. And, although President Obama didn’t declare H1N1 a national emergency until after 1,000 people in America died, I don’t remember anyone accusing him of being slow to act or calling it “The Obama” virus. And they shouldn’t have. President Obama didn’t bring the Swine Flu to this country and I’m sure he did the very best he could to address it once it got here. We, particularly the media, should be giving the same deference to President Trump.
I’m not saying that the Coronavirus is not a serious health challenge for this country and the world. China has reported almost 81,000 cases and 3,189 deaths, but it appears that the trajectory of this disease has flattened out there and they may be seeing the tail end of their Corona crisis. Italy may be suffering the worst harm from Covid-19. While Italy has only 5% of China’s population, it currently has 21,157 cases and 1,441 deaths. They have pretty much shut down the country, but because Italy’s population is more elderly and the disease seems to have attacked in a small area, Italy will need help from us and other European nations to resolve their problems.
While America still has a big challenge in front of it there is a silver lining surrounding the pandemic. The Coronavirus has united this country in a way that our politicians have failed to do for the last three years. President Trump has actually praised Nancy Pelosi and the House of Representatives for their swift action in passing the Family First Coronavirus Act, even after she tried to sneak some abortion funding into the bill. Gavin Newsom, Democrat governor of California, praised Trump and his administration for their quick response to his needs, and Vice President Pence complimented Newsome, Cuomo and all our governors for their cooperation.
At first, I thought the cancelation of March Madness, the suspension of the NBA season and the delay of Major League Baseball’s opening day was an overreaction, but even this has allowed the generosity of our people to shine through. Rookie NBA player Zion Williamson committed to cover the salaries of all of their arena workers for the next 30 days. It takes 700 to 1,000 people per game to staff an arena and Zion is covering them for nine or ten games. Nice!! Kevin Love, Blake Griffin and Giannis (the Greek Freak) Antetokounmpo have also made significant monetary commitments to support those hourly workers in their arenas. In addition, owners like Mark Cuban and Joe Tsai are working out plans to cover their workers. I expect more of this selflessness in the coming weeks. My applause to the NBA.
There is another positive development that will yield both short-term and long-term benefits to the country, and that is the public-private partnership that is being forged as we speak. Companies like Walmart, Walgreens and Quest Diagnostics are partnering with the federal government to enhance the access and speed of testing here in the US. This should flatten the curve of infection and transmission of this virus today; but, it will also serve as a roadmap for future administrations when new pandemics emerge. Trust me, there will be more.
Finally, I predict that there will be a big loser, long-term, and that will be China, and there will be a be winner, long-term, and that will be the United States. Companies around the world are discovering right now how dependent they are on China for critical products, especially in the healthcare industry. As companies in America and Europe re-evaluate their supply chains, they are going to be looking for dependability as well as lower costs. I predict that many US companies will move at least part or all of their manufacturing capabilities back to this country in order to avoid disruptions in the future.
Finally, this too shall pass. There will be more Americans infected with this virus, and unfortunately there will be more deaths, especially for people who are older and have other underlying health issues. We will, however, come out of this and I believe we will come out of it better, more united and more capable of handling the next pandemic. For now – wash your hands, clean common surfaces and if you get symptoms, get tested. But don’t panic. Live as normal a life as possible. Remember, no matter what anyone says, not everyone will get this virus, and 99% of the people who contract it will recover. I plan on being one of them!!
The View from the Middle
Weeks ago I made comparisons between the Coronavirus and the 2009-10 H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic. It seems that the mainstream media has finally caught up to me and has started to compare these two pandemics, because it gives us all great perspective through which we can view our current health crisis.
According to the CDC the Swine Flu infected almost 60 million people in the United States. To date, the Coronavirus has been contracted by less than 3,000 people in America. Just 10 years ago, H1N1 hospitalized over 265,000 people here and killed 12,650 Americans. As of today, the Coronavirus has killed 57 people in this country, and 37 of those mortalities have been in the state of Washington, and 25 of these fatalities came from one nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. Do the math, outside the state of Washington there have been only 20 deaths from Covid-19 (the Coronavirus) in The United States.
Despite the fact that the infection and mortality rates for the Swine Flu are almost identical to the Coronavirus, I don’t remember the 24-7 news coverage of the Swine Flu and the daily counts of infections and deaths. And, although President Obama didn’t declare H1N1 a national emergency until after 1,000 people in America died, I don’t remember anyone accusing him of being slow to act or calling it “The Obama” virus. And they shouldn’t have. President Obama didn’t bring the Swine Flu to this country and I’m sure he did the very best he could to address it once it got here. We, particularly the media, should be giving the same deference to President Trump.
I’m not saying that the Coronavirus is not a serious health challenge for this country and the world. China has reported almost 81,000 cases and 3,189 deaths, but it appears that the trajectory of this disease has flattened out there and they may be seeing the tail end of their Corona crisis. Italy may be suffering the worst harm from Covid-19. While Italy has only 5% of China’s population, it currently has 21,157 cases and 1,441 deaths. They have pretty much shut down the country, but because Italy’s population is more elderly and the disease seems to have attacked in a small area, Italy will need help from us and other European nations to resolve their problems.
While America still has a big challenge in front of it there is a silver lining surrounding the pandemic. The Coronavirus has united this country in a way that our politicians have failed to do for the last three years. President Trump has actually praised Nancy Pelosi and the House of Representatives for their swift action in passing the Family First Coronavirus Act, even after she tried to sneak some abortion funding into the bill. Gavin Newsom, Democrat governor of California, praised Trump and his administration for their quick response to his needs, and Vice President Pence complimented Newsome, Cuomo and all our governors for their cooperation.
At first, I thought the cancelation of March Madness, the suspension of the NBA season and the delay of Major League Baseball’s opening day was an overreaction, but even this has allowed the generosity of our people to shine through. Rookie NBA player Zion Williamson committed to cover the salaries of all of their arena workers for the next 30 days. It takes 700 to 1,000 people per game to staff an arena and Zion is covering them for nine or ten games. Nice!! Kevin Love, Blake Griffin and Giannis (the Greek Freak) Antetokounmpo have also made significant monetary commitments to support those hourly workers in their arenas. In addition, owners like Mark Cuban and Joe Tsai are working out plans to cover their workers. I expect more of this selflessness in the coming weeks. My applause to the NBA.
There is another positive development that will yield both short-term and long-term benefits to the country, and that is the public-private partnership that is being forged as we speak. Companies like Walmart, Walgreens and Quest Diagnostics are partnering with the federal government to enhance the access and speed of testing here in the US. This should flatten the curve of infection and transmission of this virus today; but, it will also serve as a roadmap for future administrations when new pandemics emerge. Trust me, there will be more.
Finally, I predict that there will be a big loser, long-term, and that will be China, and there will be a be winner, long-term, and that will be the United States. Companies around the world are discovering right now how dependent they are on China for critical products, especially in the healthcare industry. As companies in America and Europe re-evaluate their supply chains, they are going to be looking for dependability as well as lower costs. I predict that many US companies will move at least part or all of their manufacturing capabilities back to this country in order to avoid disruptions in the future.
Finally, this too shall pass. There will be more Americans infected with this virus, and unfortunately there will be more deaths, especially for people who are older and have other underlying health issues. We will, however, come out of this and I believe we will come out of it better, more united and more capable of handling the next pandemic. For now – wash your hands, clean common surfaces and if you get symptoms, get tested. But don’t panic. Live as normal a life as possible. Remember, no matter what anyone says, not everyone will get this virus, and 99% of the people who contract it will recover. I plan on being one of them!!
Thursday, March 5, 2020
And Then There Were Two
And Then There Were Two
The View from the Middle
Actually, there are three people left in the Democrat primary because Tulsi Gabbard, whom I actually like, is still running. But let’s be realistic, the Democrat Party is down to a choice between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders for their Presidential nominee.
Just four days ago, I wrote an article called “The Democrats’ Dilemma” in which I suggested that I did not see a path for the Democrat nominee to beat Trump in November, but much has happened since March 1st and a door cracked open for the Dems. No one projected Joe Biden’s resounding success on Super Tuesday, and no one anticipated the consolidation of candidates that started with Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out before Super Tuesday, and ended with Elizabeth Warren leaving the race today.
The biggest bombshell, however, had to be Michael Bloomberg’s departure from the race yesterday. Bloomberg had spent over $500 million (some estimates have him spending over $700 million) on his campaign over the last three months and had vowed to go all the way to the convention. He famously said that he, “was in it to win it”. Of course, there are limits to any promise, I guess. Mike’s best finish on Tuesday was 3rd place, which he captured in nine states, and he finished 4th in the other five states. But he did win American Samoa where his vote total was under 200 people. Ouch.
I guess Mike came to the conclusion that there’s more than one way to buy the Presidency. The day after Super Tuesday he ditched all his plans and immediately endorsed Joe Biden. My guess is that he and Klobuchar and Buttigieg got the memo and decided to vacate the moderate lane of the Democrat party for Joe Biden. While I thought that this would eventually happen, I never suspected that it would happen so fast.
Why does this rapid consolidation make such a difference? It makes it less likely that the Democrats will have an open convention, which would bring in the dreaded “super” delegates and the delegate bartering which comes in the second round of the convention. It also makes it less likely to end with Bernie actually controlling the most delegates or having the delegate count be so close that the Bernie bros will feel like they have been cheated. But Joe and the Dems still have some major roadblocks to a victory in November.
First of all, Joe, whom I most assuredly prefer to Bernie Sanders, will be 78 by November and has shown some signs of mental slippage. People coming to his defense say that he has “always” been gaffe prone, which I would suggest is a weak defense, but most people are recognizing that he has gotten worse. He has called himself an “old guy” and I think has promised not to run for a second term, which may cause many to ask if he is capable of being effective in his first term.
Second, Joe needs to be careful how he tries to merge his moderate lane with the progressive lane of the Democrat Party. In his effort just to win Texas, he sidled up to Beto O’Rourke and after that win said that Beto would, “take care of the gun problem with me. You’re going to be the one who leads this effort.” Beto is the guy who suggested he would send people door to door to confiscate legally purchased guns. There is a wide median between the Bernie voters and the Biden voters and bringing them together will be difficult.
Finally, Trump is going to make a huge deal out of Joe and Hunter Biden’s dealings in Ukraine. You may not like it. You may think it isn’t fair, but it is going to happen. At best, Hunter’s dealing with Ukraine and China while his father was Vice President was a conflict of interest. The Obama administration voiced their disapproval and both Joe and Hunter have stated that they wouldn’t do it again, suggesting that it was at best poor judgement. Trump is going to pound on that issue.
I still think it is a tall order for the Dems to win the Whitehouse in the fall, but a slight opening has been made by the Democrat establishment. Joe will still need a lot of help to squeeze through it.
PS – Chuck Schumer should just apologize and move on if he knows what’s best for himself and for the justice system and for the country.
The View from the Middle
Actually, there are three people left in the Democrat primary because Tulsi Gabbard, whom I actually like, is still running. But let’s be realistic, the Democrat Party is down to a choice between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders for their Presidential nominee.
Just four days ago, I wrote an article called “The Democrats’ Dilemma” in which I suggested that I did not see a path for the Democrat nominee to beat Trump in November, but much has happened since March 1st and a door cracked open for the Dems. No one projected Joe Biden’s resounding success on Super Tuesday, and no one anticipated the consolidation of candidates that started with Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out before Super Tuesday, and ended with Elizabeth Warren leaving the race today.
The biggest bombshell, however, had to be Michael Bloomberg’s departure from the race yesterday. Bloomberg had spent over $500 million (some estimates have him spending over $700 million) on his campaign over the last three months and had vowed to go all the way to the convention. He famously said that he, “was in it to win it”. Of course, there are limits to any promise, I guess. Mike’s best finish on Tuesday was 3rd place, which he captured in nine states, and he finished 4th in the other five states. But he did win American Samoa where his vote total was under 200 people. Ouch.
I guess Mike came to the conclusion that there’s more than one way to buy the Presidency. The day after Super Tuesday he ditched all his plans and immediately endorsed Joe Biden. My guess is that he and Klobuchar and Buttigieg got the memo and decided to vacate the moderate lane of the Democrat party for Joe Biden. While I thought that this would eventually happen, I never suspected that it would happen so fast.
Why does this rapid consolidation make such a difference? It makes it less likely that the Democrats will have an open convention, which would bring in the dreaded “super” delegates and the delegate bartering which comes in the second round of the convention. It also makes it less likely to end with Bernie actually controlling the most delegates or having the delegate count be so close that the Bernie bros will feel like they have been cheated. But Joe and the Dems still have some major roadblocks to a victory in November.
First of all, Joe, whom I most assuredly prefer to Bernie Sanders, will be 78 by November and has shown some signs of mental slippage. People coming to his defense say that he has “always” been gaffe prone, which I would suggest is a weak defense, but most people are recognizing that he has gotten worse. He has called himself an “old guy” and I think has promised not to run for a second term, which may cause many to ask if he is capable of being effective in his first term.
Second, Joe needs to be careful how he tries to merge his moderate lane with the progressive lane of the Democrat Party. In his effort just to win Texas, he sidled up to Beto O’Rourke and after that win said that Beto would, “take care of the gun problem with me. You’re going to be the one who leads this effort.” Beto is the guy who suggested he would send people door to door to confiscate legally purchased guns. There is a wide median between the Bernie voters and the Biden voters and bringing them together will be difficult.
Finally, Trump is going to make a huge deal out of Joe and Hunter Biden’s dealings in Ukraine. You may not like it. You may think it isn’t fair, but it is going to happen. At best, Hunter’s dealing with Ukraine and China while his father was Vice President was a conflict of interest. The Obama administration voiced their disapproval and both Joe and Hunter have stated that they wouldn’t do it again, suggesting that it was at best poor judgement. Trump is going to pound on that issue.
I still think it is a tall order for the Dems to win the Whitehouse in the fall, but a slight opening has been made by the Democrat establishment. Joe will still need a lot of help to squeeze through it.
PS – Chuck Schumer should just apologize and move on if he knows what’s best for himself and for the justice system and for the country.
Monday, March 2, 2020
The Coronavirus, A Nonpartisan Issue and Disease
Let’s be clear, all viruses, the Coronavirus included, do not care about race, religion, skin color or even political affiliation. This is one issue where both sides of the ideological spectrum should be working together to defeat this common foe. We should all be condemning any politicization of this or any virus or disease that threatens our country. So, what should our politicians be doing for our citizens in the face of the Coronavirus challenge?
First of all, they should be sharing the FACTS with the entire country, and not resorting to hyperbole and outright misinformation. For example, the Coronavirus is NOT the equivalent to the Spanish Flu, as I have heard it compared to. In 1918, the Spanish Flu affected 500 million people world-wide and killed 20 million people which translates to a 4% mortality rate. It killed nearly 700,000 people in the US when America’s population was only about 100 million people. Given today’s population of over 300 million that would convert to about two million deaths here in the states. The Coronavirus is not the Spanish Flu!
The Coronavirus is not even the equivalent to our annual flu viruses that we have experienced over the last nine years according to the CDC. Over the last nine years nearly 30 million people per year get the Flu in the US, and we have averaged over 37,000 deaths per year. That is only a 0.13% mortality rate, but because it is so common, it accounts for many deaths, especially in the elderly and very young.
As of today, there are over 80,000 cases of the Coronavirus world-wide, but only 80 cases so far in the US thanks to some early travel restrictions initiated by President Trump. The Death rate seems to be about 2%, which is much higher than our normal flu, but not near the Spanish Flu rate or the Ebola mortality rate which was about 50%. In America, there have been two deaths so far and both have been from the same nursing home in Kirkland, WA.
There will, undoubtedly, be more cases in the US, but Americans should know that the risk to the general population is still very low. We have over 300 million people in America, and only 80 cases so far. It also seems to me that our federal, state and local governments are well positioned to minimize the impact of this virus. Travel restrictions are in place, identification is a priority as well as tracking the interactions of any of those infected. The production of materials necessary to contain this virus, like masks and testing kits, are being expedited, and multiple private groups seem very close to developing a vaccine which I’m sure will be fast-tracked into production.
Also, our government should be telling you what you personally can do to avoid infection. That word is getting out, but just in case you’ve missed it, let me outline what you can do to keep yourself and your family safe. I could put “Duh” behind each of these suggestions:
1. Avoid people who are already sick or show the symptoms of the flu.
2. Stay home when you are sick and avoid contaminating others.
3. Cover your cough or sneeze, preferably with a tissue, and then throw that tissue away.
4. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
5. Wash your hands with soap and water often, but primarily before you prepare or eat food.
And finally, don’t panic. While observing the above precautions, go about your life normally. Drink plenty of fluids (water), exercise, my wife says take extra vitamin D3, and get plenty of sleep. This will help keep your bodies strong so that it can fight off this virus in the unlikely event that you are infected. The other good news is that, if you follow the above regimen, you are also less likely to catch the common cold or this year’s version of the flu.
First of all, they should be sharing the FACTS with the entire country, and not resorting to hyperbole and outright misinformation. For example, the Coronavirus is NOT the equivalent to the Spanish Flu, as I have heard it compared to. In 1918, the Spanish Flu affected 500 million people world-wide and killed 20 million people which translates to a 4% mortality rate. It killed nearly 700,000 people in the US when America’s population was only about 100 million people. Given today’s population of over 300 million that would convert to about two million deaths here in the states. The Coronavirus is not the Spanish Flu!
The Coronavirus is not even the equivalent to our annual flu viruses that we have experienced over the last nine years according to the CDC. Over the last nine years nearly 30 million people per year get the Flu in the US, and we have averaged over 37,000 deaths per year. That is only a 0.13% mortality rate, but because it is so common, it accounts for many deaths, especially in the elderly and very young.
As of today, there are over 80,000 cases of the Coronavirus world-wide, but only 80 cases so far in the US thanks to some early travel restrictions initiated by President Trump. The Death rate seems to be about 2%, which is much higher than our normal flu, but not near the Spanish Flu rate or the Ebola mortality rate which was about 50%. In America, there have been two deaths so far and both have been from the same nursing home in Kirkland, WA.
There will, undoubtedly, be more cases in the US, but Americans should know that the risk to the general population is still very low. We have over 300 million people in America, and only 80 cases so far. It also seems to me that our federal, state and local governments are well positioned to minimize the impact of this virus. Travel restrictions are in place, identification is a priority as well as tracking the interactions of any of those infected. The production of materials necessary to contain this virus, like masks and testing kits, are being expedited, and multiple private groups seem very close to developing a vaccine which I’m sure will be fast-tracked into production.
Also, our government should be telling you what you personally can do to avoid infection. That word is getting out, but just in case you’ve missed it, let me outline what you can do to keep yourself and your family safe. I could put “Duh” behind each of these suggestions:
1. Avoid people who are already sick or show the symptoms of the flu.
2. Stay home when you are sick and avoid contaminating others.
3. Cover your cough or sneeze, preferably with a tissue, and then throw that tissue away.
4. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
5. Wash your hands with soap and water often, but primarily before you prepare or eat food.
And finally, don’t panic. While observing the above precautions, go about your life normally. Drink plenty of fluids (water), exercise, my wife says take extra vitamin D3, and get plenty of sleep. This will help keep your bodies strong so that it can fight off this virus in the unlikely event that you are infected. The other good news is that, if you follow the above regimen, you are also less likely to catch the common cold or this year’s version of the flu.
Sunday, March 1, 2020
The Democrats' Dilemma
While I have stated this before, I will declare it again right now. I would prefer that we have two parties in this country that are both vibrant and realistic. Of course, I would desire that the Democrat Party be a center-left lot and the Republican Party be a center-right group. This would allow for compromise in the absolute center of the ideological spectrum. Certainly, the Republican Party has had some issues with their more liberal members, like Susan Collins of Maine, and the “Tea” Party which, one could argue, is today’s Freedom Caucus. But the Republican Party today is more united than it has been in a long time. It’s probably a center-right party, especially when you consider that they have a President who was once a Democrat (of course, Reagan was a Democrat once also). But the Democrats are more divided ideologically that I can remember, and this will create tremendous problems for them come November.
While the entire Democrat Party has leaned pretty far left over the last three years, there are two factions fighting for the heart of the party. One faction is the unapologetic socialist wing of the party, represented by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (I know she says she’s a capitalist, but a rose by any other name…) and the moderates, Biden and Bloomberg. I know that Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Steyer and Gabbard (I actually like her) are still technically in the race, but their chances of pulling off a victory are practically nonexistent.
In the “socialist” camp you have Warren and Sanders, but again, let’s be realistic. Sanders is well ahead of Warren nationally and would probably be the representative in this camp at the convention. If Sanders actually becomes the Democrat nominee, however, the party has some tremendous issues. First, Bernie’s proposals are absolutely implausible. He wants free medical care, free college, free child-care, forgiveness of all college debt and on top of this he has his “green new deal”. Bernie says he doesn’t have a price tag for all of his programs, which is a good move on his part. My rough calculation of the total cost of his “freebies” and “government take-overs” is $100 trillion over 10 years. That’s Trillion, with a “T”. That’s an average $10 trillion a year MORE than the federal government is spending now.
When you consider that our government spent only (I nearly choked when I typed “only”) $4.45 trillion in fiscal 2019, this would mean that Bernie plans to triple the size of our government. And, remember what I’ve been telling you. THE GOVERNMENT HAS NO MONEY. Every penny it spends comes from “we the people”. He can SAY he is going to give away all this free stuff, but in reality he can't. This is why Bernie has authored only three bills that have been passed into law during his entire 39 years in Congress, and two of those bills were to name Post Offices in Vermont. He has a horrible track record because his proposals are preposterous. He can’t deliver what he promises, and people will eventually figure that out.
The final reality that will burst Bernie’s Presidential dreams is that the people of the United States oppose socialism and embrace capitalism, which has delivered the most powerful, most free and most prosperous nation on earth. According to NPR (hardly a conservative outfit) only 28% of Americans have a favorable impression of socialism. Only 50% of Democrats feel that way, only 7% of Republicans and 23% of Independents. Given his ridiculous proposals, his pitiful record in Congress and the general state of the mind of Americans, I don’t believe that Bernie can win in November. But he is the current leader in the Democrat primary, and that’s a problem for Democrats.
But let’s say that Biden or Bloomberg win the primary battle and get the nomination in Milwaukee. They are the more moderate choices for Democrats and are two choices I would prefer over Sanders. I have some issues with their policies, and I see very few Trump voters jumping ship for either of these men. Their problem in the general election, however, isn’t convincing Trump voters to change their votes. It is to get Bernie’s people to vote at all.
While Bernie voters aren’t bountiful enough to win the general election, they are fanatical. They feel like they were cheated in 2016, and if its happens again in 2020 they are going to madder than a wet hen. If Bernie goes into the convention with the most delegates (likely) but not enough to win on the first ballot (also likely) that would lead to an open convention. There, I predict Bernie will be defeated by a combination of super-delegate votes and the normal delegate swapping that happens in an open convention. I don’t believe Biden or Bloomberg can win in November without a strong turnout from the Bernie voters, and I just don’t see that happening.
I just can’t see a positive outcome for the Democrats. Their only hope is to blame the Coronavirus on Trump, hope that it devastates America (a truly disgusting wish) and hope that people actually believe that all of this was Trump's fault. If you have another possible outcome, let me know!!
While the entire Democrat Party has leaned pretty far left over the last three years, there are two factions fighting for the heart of the party. One faction is the unapologetic socialist wing of the party, represented by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (I know she says she’s a capitalist, but a rose by any other name…) and the moderates, Biden and Bloomberg. I know that Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Steyer and Gabbard (I actually like her) are still technically in the race, but their chances of pulling off a victory are practically nonexistent.
In the “socialist” camp you have Warren and Sanders, but again, let’s be realistic. Sanders is well ahead of Warren nationally and would probably be the representative in this camp at the convention. If Sanders actually becomes the Democrat nominee, however, the party has some tremendous issues. First, Bernie’s proposals are absolutely implausible. He wants free medical care, free college, free child-care, forgiveness of all college debt and on top of this he has his “green new deal”. Bernie says he doesn’t have a price tag for all of his programs, which is a good move on his part. My rough calculation of the total cost of his “freebies” and “government take-overs” is $100 trillion over 10 years. That’s Trillion, with a “T”. That’s an average $10 trillion a year MORE than the federal government is spending now.
When you consider that our government spent only (I nearly choked when I typed “only”) $4.45 trillion in fiscal 2019, this would mean that Bernie plans to triple the size of our government. And, remember what I’ve been telling you. THE GOVERNMENT HAS NO MONEY. Every penny it spends comes from “we the people”. He can SAY he is going to give away all this free stuff, but in reality he can't. This is why Bernie has authored only three bills that have been passed into law during his entire 39 years in Congress, and two of those bills were to name Post Offices in Vermont. He has a horrible track record because his proposals are preposterous. He can’t deliver what he promises, and people will eventually figure that out.
The final reality that will burst Bernie’s Presidential dreams is that the people of the United States oppose socialism and embrace capitalism, which has delivered the most powerful, most free and most prosperous nation on earth. According to NPR (hardly a conservative outfit) only 28% of Americans have a favorable impression of socialism. Only 50% of Democrats feel that way, only 7% of Republicans and 23% of Independents. Given his ridiculous proposals, his pitiful record in Congress and the general state of the mind of Americans, I don’t believe that Bernie can win in November. But he is the current leader in the Democrat primary, and that’s a problem for Democrats.
But let’s say that Biden or Bloomberg win the primary battle and get the nomination in Milwaukee. They are the more moderate choices for Democrats and are two choices I would prefer over Sanders. I have some issues with their policies, and I see very few Trump voters jumping ship for either of these men. Their problem in the general election, however, isn’t convincing Trump voters to change their votes. It is to get Bernie’s people to vote at all.
While Bernie voters aren’t bountiful enough to win the general election, they are fanatical. They feel like they were cheated in 2016, and if its happens again in 2020 they are going to madder than a wet hen. If Bernie goes into the convention with the most delegates (likely) but not enough to win on the first ballot (also likely) that would lead to an open convention. There, I predict Bernie will be defeated by a combination of super-delegate votes and the normal delegate swapping that happens in an open convention. I don’t believe Biden or Bloomberg can win in November without a strong turnout from the Bernie voters, and I just don’t see that happening.
I just can’t see a positive outcome for the Democrats. Their only hope is to blame the Coronavirus on Trump, hope that it devastates America (a truly disgusting wish) and hope that people actually believe that all of this was Trump's fault. If you have another possible outcome, let me know!!
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