Nightmare in November

Nightmare in November

The View from the Middle

There are so many nightmare scenarios playing out in this year’s Presidential election process that it boggles the mind.  And the first horror has already intruded into all of our realities, and that is – we’re going to have to vote for one of these guys!  Only 37% of Americans believe Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy, a quality you would think would be essential when voting for an American President.  Bernie Sanders is a self-avowed socialist who has piled up a mountain of promises he can’t possibly keep.  Almost 70% of Americans have a negative view of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz’s main qualification seems to be that he isn’t Donald Trump.

 We have over 300 million people in the United States and these four are the best we can come up with to run the country?  Out of the 17 people who started out as potential candidates on the Republican side, Trump and Cruz might have been my 16^th and 17^th picks.  I’ll let you choose who finished last.  And on the Democratic side, you could only come up with two viable candidates?  Really?  I will be voting for one of these people come November, but I’m not going to enjoy it.  And this brings me to the other nightmare waiting for us in November – voter turnout.

At least I’m going to vote, but there are a number of factors that could lead us to the most apathetic electorate since Calvin Coolidge.  We have already discussed the first factor; none of these candidates are compelling.  Many Americans will see their choice for President like a choice between getting shot in the head or being blown up by a suicide vest.  This is not exactly the feeling that will drive huge participation.

Next, both parties have figured out how to disenfranchise their voters.  On the Democratic side, they have done it with their Super Delegates.  Bernie Sanders has been drawing many young voters to support him.  In fact, over 80% of Democratic voters between the ages of 18 and 29 endorse Sanders.  These young and naïve voters are about to be introduced to the slimier side of politics.

Through Wisconsin, Bernie Sanders has acquired 1,082 committed delegates, or 45% of the total so far.  This is an unimagined accomplishment by the Sanders ground troops and has excited these young voters.  However, all these youthful voters are about to learn that Hillary Clinton already has 94% of the 500 super delegates who have already committed to Bernie’s paltry 31 or 6%.  If they get the sense that “the fix was in” from the beginning, this now angry and disgusted group may not even show up in the fall! 

On the Republican side you have the real possibility of a contested or brokered convention.  Every day it seems more and more likely that no one candidate will arrive in Cleveland with the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot.  This is not unprecedented, however.  In 1860, Abraham Lincoln came in 2^nd to William Seward on the first ballot of their convention, but Seward did not have the required 50% plus one delegate necessary to win the nomination.

Lincoln’s inner circle worked the delegate floor and finally won the nomination on the 3^rd ballot.  I’m certain that Seward was disappointed, but he later became Lincoln’s friend and his Secretary of State.  This would suggest that while there was a competitive atmosphere during these primaries, there wasn’t the vitriolic and mean-spirited rhetoric that we have seen in today’s Republican Primary.

With Seward’s support, Lincoln went on to defeat Douglas in the general election and become one of our greatest Presidents.  Do any of us imagine that kind of cooperation between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump today after the childish and even vicious accusations that these men have thrown at each other?

The Cruz and Trump camps are so polarized that it is easy to see why, no matter who wins the nomination, the other side may choose to just stay at home in November.  And, of course, if the Republican Establishment tries to parachute a white knight like Paul Ryan in to steal the nomination, both the Trump and Cruz crowds may rebel through absenteeism.  Can you imagine Ted Cruz getting up in front of the Republican Convention and delivering a rousing, heart-felt endorsement of Trump, should he win; or vice versa?  This is what it would take to unite the party and bring the vote out, but I think it is unlikely to happen.  

And we have no one else to blame but ourselves.  We have allowed our politicians in Washington to use the “divide and conquer” tactic on us so that they could get elected.  Now, we must realize that they have driven too many wedges between too many constituencies and the fabric of America is coming unraveled.  Passion has turned into disgust and loathing, which could turn into an abandonment of both parties come November.  We will reap what we have sown.