It’s hard to keep track of the hyperbolic, cataclysmic, even existential warnings that have been perpetrated by our politicians and the media about the importance and certainty of climate change – 99% of which have already been proven wrong. And it didn’t just begin yesterday! The scientific community has demonstrated an inability to predict climate for my entire lifetime. Back in 1970, Paul Ehrlich, famed Stanford ecologist, warned that the world would end in 1985 if we didn’t take drastic action right away. We didn’t take those dramatic actions and the world did not end in 1985. Just four years after Ehrlich’s fatalistic warning on global warming, Time magazine cautioned the world on its cover about the coming “Ice Age”. Yah, we have a real handle on climate forecasting, don’t we!
Let’s also not forget Al Gore’s famous prediction back in 2006 that the Polar Ice Caps (both of them) would be completely gone by 2010 and that New York City would be underwater by 2013. And, of course, if New York was doomed, the Maldives (an island country with the lowest average sea level in the world) would be erased from existence. None of these predictions have come true, and Al Gore and the media have developed a convenient case of amnesia concerning them. The Polar Bears are happy, however. They were supposed to become extinct by now, but nobody told them as they have flourished in the face of these prognostications.
All of these failed forecasts do not deter the climate change fearmongers, however. They simply move the goalposts. In 2018, CNN and AOC declared that the “Earth has 12 years to avert a climate change catastrophe”. That gave all of the climate change alarmists some breathing room and replaced an easy to check prediction with the ambiguous warning of a “climate change catastrophe”. What exactly does that mean anyway? Both CNN and AOC are hoping that none of us are keeping track of that 12-year prediction. Today they are still using the 12-year number, but I’m monitoring that claim for them. They now have only eight (8) years left on this prophesy, and I plan to be around to point out their error when their time runs out.
And I love the latest tactic that these climate change fanatics are using. They now say that if we don’t destroy the fossil fuel industry and move to “zero emissions” by 2035 (an absolute impossibility), the world will be uninhabitable by 2100. This would demand insane regulations and actions, like legislating the complete abandonment of combustion engine cars and the current infrastructure that goes with it, without understanding the implications on our economy or our environment. It also moves the goal posts out of sight to a time when all of us will conveniently be dead. Here’s a good axiom to keep in mind when you think of this prediction – if anyone tells you that they know exactly what is going to happen in 100 years, they are lying!!!
The fact is, we have a rich history of erroneous forecasts and we currently lack an understanding of what this brave new world of “zero emissions” looks like. Is this really a time when we want one man, soon to be 80, making decisions through executive orders that could destroy entire industries, our country’s economy and America’s position in the world? Or is it a time to work collaboratively to completely understand our current situation and the best path to the future?
If you really want to understand the current situation and a reasonable approach to our future, you should read the book “False Alarm” by Bjorn Lomborg. Lomborg is a Danish author, political scientist and President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center think tank. He is NOT a climate change denier. Far from it. He is a believer, but he points out that we have a hundred years or more to react to this challenge through innovation and adaptation. He also suggests that we are uncertain about the implications of any global warming on the Earth. He implies that results will not be as calamitous as politicians and the media promise, and there may even be some positives aspects of any warming.
He indicates that the current campaign of fear mongering and fatalism is not the appropriate approach to solving this problem. To quote Bjorn, “we need to stop exaggerating, stop arguing that it is now or never, and stop thinking that climate is the only thing that matters.” He adds, “We are being told that we must do everything right away…(and) this is what the science tells us. But this is NOT what science tells us. It’s what politics tells us.”
While I consider myself (and the late, great Charles Krauthammer) to be a climate change agnostic, I do agree with Bjorn Lomborg on this aspect of the climate change debate. The LAST thing we need to do today is panic and allow an 80-year-old man to single handedly commit The United States to actions (policies) that could take decades to undo if and WHEN they turn out to be misguided. It is time to bring the best minds on both sides of the argument together in order to guide us into a safe, prosperous and possibly slightly warmer future. Then again, if the sun decides to cut back on its heat, we could find ourselves adapting to a new ice age, which we will have to adjust to in order to survive. And I’m confident that we will!!
excellent article Kevin!
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