Donald Trump, a dilemma

The Trump Dilemma

The View from the Middle

The country is “abuzz” about Donald Trump these days.  He has come out of the proverbial “blue” and is actually leading all Republican primary candidates in the most recent USA Today poll.  The questions most Americans are asking are, “why has he surged?  Can he actually win?  And, what are the ramifications of his participation in this political process?”  Let’s talk about “why” first.

“The Donald”, as he was dubbed by his first wife Ivana, has great name recognition, which most politicians would kill for.  He is a flamboyant character, who has been in the headlines since the 1970’s when he joined and then led his father’s real estate company.  While his publicity has not always been positive (his corporations have declared bankruptcy four times), he always seems to emerge from each escapade as a hero and an example of the American dream.  He was ranked the 6^th most admired man in the world by Gallup in 2011 and is still in the top 20 today.  Now, that’s long-term name recognition.

Mr. Trump has also tapped into a conservative base with his views and current statements.  He is pro-life, as are many other Americans, and doesn’t apologize for standing up for the unborn.  His 1-5-10-15% federal income tax proposal is simple, less crippling and yet is progressive, and will appeal to many on both sides of the political spectrum.  He is for tougher trade negotiations with the likes of China, which could include some fairly high tariffs on their goods.  The unions should love that stance, but even I am in favor of getting tougher on China.

Now, let’s talk immigration.  While he may have spoken ineloquently, Mr. Trump has touched on some fundamental truths.  Certainly no one believes that every illegal alien is a murderer or rapist or felon of some other kind.  Most of the people who come across our southern border illegally are hard working, honest folks who are just looking for a better life for themselves and for their children than their home country can provide.

But we all must admit that some of these people were felons in Mexico or elsewhere already and others have committed terrible crimes here in the states since they slipped in.  No one wants these kinds of people here.  It is obvious, however, that our border is pitifully porous when a seven-time felon can enter to this country illegally six times before finally killing an absolutely innocent young women here.  And, it’s not as if she would have been killed anyway by some other criminal.  The fact is, if Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez had not been in San Francisco, Kate Steinle would still be alive today. 

So, The Donald has brought up the issue of border security, which is something we must do more than just discuss.  We must solve it.  Then we can move on to the question of a path to citizenship for those good people we wouldn’t mind keeping here. 

THIS is what Mr. Trump will be good for.  He could force substantive discussions on issues like immigration, tax reform, international trade and abortion.  These discussions will be good for the Republican Party and the country, especially if Washington develops solutions to these issues as a result.

But in my opinion, that is all The Donald is good for.  He is not electable.  He is not a politician as witnessed by the recent maelstrom caused by his misstatements on immigration.  Politics is about getting people with different points of view to work together.  If you are looking for an example of this political compromise, just look back to a convention held in Philadelphia in 1787.  That gathering delivered a masterpiece in world history known as the American Constitution.  Donald would not be able to just “fire” the other side, and that, unfortunately, is what he is used to doing. 

So while he is not electable, he can have a very positive impact on the debate in this election.  But, there is one thing he can do that would absolutely guarantee the results of the 2016 election.  He could run as an independent.

He would be crushed, of course, but virtually every vote that he gained would come straight from the Republican base.  He would become the 2016 version of Ross Perot, who ran as an independent in 1992 and took most of his votes from George H. W. Bush who lost that election to his Democrat foe.  And who was that Democrat candidate?  Bill Clinton!  To quote the famed philosopher / baseball player, Yogi Berra, “It would be like Deja vu all over again.”